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Yesterday, the domestic aluminum ingot social library went to the warehouse again, Wuxi, Foshan area to the warehouse is more obvious, and the spot premium continued to rise, spot demand is strong, effectively support the upward
trend of aluminum prices.
Recently, the aluminum spot import window is close to opening, and the price of aluminum CIF bill of lading has also risen, and some aluminum ingots will be imported
when the window is opened later.
From the perspective of domestic fundamentals, although the power rationing on the supply side has eased, it takes time for the short-term slot to recover, and the short-term marginal of supply is weak; On the demand side, with the alleviation of power cuts in Henan and the arrival of the follow-up "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season, the consumption increment margin is strong
.
Therefore, the subsequent fundamentals are likely to strengthen marginally, which has some support
for aluminum prices.
However, there are also certain "headwinds" in the market, such as Xinjiang affected by transportation, there is a large backlog of aluminum ingots on the platform, according to statistics, about 86,000 tons (the actual amount may only be half), this part of the aluminum ingots released to the market also has a certain amount of accumulation pressure
.
Moreover, aluminum prices are moving to a high level in early May, which may be under greater pressure
.
In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to risks such as weakening macro demand and reducing the tax rebate for aluminum exports
.
In terms of inventory, the continued dematerialization of inventories supports the resilience of aluminum consumption in the current off-season, with inventories accumulating slightly by 2,000 tons this week, and the current inventory level is at the level of 741,000 tons, mainly due to the concentration of goods in transit in the Gongyi area
.
This year's inventory continues to be at a low water level, and the inflection point of accumulation continues to move back, giving strong support
to the bottom of aluminum prices in the off-season.
It is worth paying attention to the specific scale of the third batch of national reserves at the end of August, if it fails to alleviate the current tight supply pressure as expected by the market, it is optimistic that aluminum prices will maintain a strong trend of volatility
.
