Staple fiber boosts the agglomeration effect of polyester futures sector

After the National Day, the polyester industry chain terminal orders exploded, which led to a large-scale replenishment of terminals, and the attention of the staple fiber market also increased.

"Oversold staple fiber factories are a common phenomenon in the industry.
If the oversold continues, then the demand has been good, and if the scale of the oversold shrinks or becomes positive inventory, then the demand is weakening.
" Yide Futures Analysis Shi Zheng Youfei said that on the one hand, some spinning mills are relatively well-funded and have the conditions to buy goods; on the other hand, spinning mill operators tend to be younger and their thinking is relatively flexible.
The volatility of oversold in Fujian factories is higher than that in East China.
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Judging from this visit to the Fujian market, the short-term downstream demand is indeed similar to market rumors, but there are differences in the structure of demand.
At present, it is more a manifestation of the concentrated release of domestic demand, and all links of the industry chain are concentrated on replenishment, while the contribution of external demand is relatively small.

"After this round of impulsive market, the market pays more attention to the follow-up performance.
" Zheng Youfei believes that South China staple fiber factories are generally oversold for 20-30 days, downstream spinning mills' raw materials are overbought for about one month, and spinning mills' finished products are also oversold.
Sold for about 1 month.
In the short term, there is no problem with demand, but the continuity of orders in the later period is doubtful, which is also the main reason for the recent downturn in staple fiber production and sales.

　　In fact, during the investigation process, most companies held a relatively positive attitude towards the current negative inventory situation, believing that oversold indicates that the staple fiber and downstream yarn links are functioning well.
However, some companies hold different views.

　　The relevant person in charge of a staple fiber factory believes that although the spinning mills are intensively purchasing, part of it is the behavior of futures traders brought about by the listing of futures.
In terms of different regions, the South China region has reduced production in the early stage, and the inventory has been low; the East China region has normal production, and the inventory once accumulated to one month, but the theoretical inventory is only 5-10 days.
Among them, the purchase of futures dealers accounted for a large proportion.
A large amount of stock purchased by futures dealers will eventually be sold back to spinning mills or staple fiber mills.
This part of the inventory is not actually digested.

　　After the visit, some staple fiber factories in Fujian are optimistic about the current warming terminal market, believing that terminal demand can be maintained until the end of the year, or even the beginning of next year.
However, some companies believe that demand is likely to last until the end of November.

　　"At present, the staple fiber of the Fujian spinning mill will be stocked up to mid-November.
If there are no new orders for the spinning mill in the next two weeks, the continuity of subsequent demand will be questioned.
" Jiang Shuopeng said, whether the follow-up staple fiber market can maintain the current There is greater uncertainty in the economic climate, which depends on the downstream replenishment rhythm, the continuity of terminal orders, and the overseas epidemic.
If the overseas epidemic situation improves significantly, it will inevitably bring about a wave of demand for replenishment.

　　Futures tools escort business operations

　　When visiting the enterprises in the polyester industry chain in Fujian, a reporter from the Futures Daily clearly felt that the market had a higher acceptance of futures and looked forward to the listing of supporting products in the industry chain.

　　Polyester factories generally welcome the newly listed staple fiber futures.
At present, most factories have PTA hedging experience and have a strong futures awareness, and all companies have also established risk control management systems.

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