Spot prices generally retraced LLDPE maintained a weak shock trend

Market conditions: L2001 main contract closed in a narrow range, with the futures closing at 7505 yuan / ton, -0.
92% from the previous trading day; Volume 409056 lots, -405,000 lots; Position 652496 lots, 6562 lots, basis -5 yuan, 9-1 spread -55 yuan
.

News: The PE inventory of domestic polyethylene enterprises (oil + coal) fell slightly in this cycle, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.
36%.

Among them, the total inventory of PE of two barrels of oil declined, down 5.
91% week-on-week and 2.
09%
year-on-year.
Among them, Sinopec's PE inventory decreased by 9.
1% week-on-week; CNPC PE inventories fell 3.
94%
week-on-week.
The PE inventory of coal-based enterprises fell by 3.
89%
week-on-week.
Traders rose 13.
83%
week-on-week.

Upstream raw materials market: Naphtha prices rebounded, and the market price in Japan was $474.
63/ton, +4%.

Ethylene prices rose in the Asian market, of which the price in Northeast Asia was 960 US dollars / ton, +2.
13%; In Southeast Asia, it was $860/mt, +2.
38%.

Spot market: LLDPE spot prices generally corrected during
the day.
North China dropped 50 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7500 yuan / ton, -50
.
East China and South China will drop 50-100 yuan / ton, of which the mainstream price in East China is 7550 yuan ton, -50; the mainstream price in South China is 7650 yuan / ton, -50
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 2066 lots, +0 lots within the day; In the historical median zone
.
Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 186705 lots, -1481 lots, short positions are 228453 lots, 1122 lots, net positions are -41748 lots, net short
.

Summary: Upstream naphtha and ethylene prices recovered slightly, but due to the growth of US crude oil inventories and the spread of recession fears, international oil prices fell sharply, and the support for cost prices weakened
.
The PE inventory of polyethylene enterprises fell slightly, and the pressure on the supply side may be eased to a certain extent; However, in terms of downstream demand, agricultural film demand growth is slow, construction starts are still at a low level, and Shandong is affected by the typhoon, some factories have stopped work, resulting in a slight decline in the operating rate of agricultural film this week, suppressing
prices.
L2001 price volatility ran below the Bollinger mid-band and closed lower at the end of the day, and the price is expected to maintain a weak volatility trend
.
Operationally, it is recommended that short orders in hand can continue to be held
.