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Yesterday's Shanghai aluminum fluctuated intraday, downward in overnight trading, and the main contract closed at 14065
.
The drive for the rise in aluminum price costs is fully reflected, the output of aluminum ingots has been lower than the same period of previous years for three consecutive weeks, the peak consumption peak may have passed, and the upward drive of Shanghai aluminum is insufficient
.
However, there is no large bearish drive in the fundamentals, Shenhuo shut down the accident production capacity, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum has been slightly reduced, giving Shanghai aluminum a certain price support, and the room for decline is limited
.
The short-term short strategy recommended in the early stage, short orders can continue to be held, considering taking profit
around 10,000.
In terms of inventory, the latest inventory of LME aluminum was 1,141,100 tons, down 13,925 tons from the previous trading day, and the aluminum warehouse receipt in the previous period was 237463 tons, down 10,463 tons
from the previous trading day.
In terms of spot, the trading price of Shanghai is between 14150-14170 yuan / ton, the price is about 10 yuan / ton lower than last Friday, the premium of the month is 10~20 yuan / ton, the spot transaction price of Wuxi is between 14150-14170 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of Hangzhou is between
14180-14200 yuan / ton.
Aluminum prices continued to fall from Friday's weak posture, holders still shipped actively, and some traders were willing to receive goods at low prices, but the actual transaction was slightly
deadlocked.
As spot prices continue to decline, downstream manufacturers take a wait-and-see attitude towards prices, and although there is some replenishment on Monday, the overall enthusiasm is not high
.
On June 3, according to statistics, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts): Shanghai area 243,000 tons, Wuxi area 422,000 tons, Hangzhou area 91,000 tons, Gongyi area 88,000 tons, South China Sea area 251,000 tons, Tianjin 54,000 tons, Linyi 10,000 tons, Chongqing 22,000 tons, consumption area aluminum ingot inventory total 1.
181 million tons, down 31,000 tons
from last Thursday.
The recently released manufacturing PMI data of major economies performed poorly, and the colored sector as a whole was under pressure
.
The impact of environmental events on alumina supply gradually faded, and alumina prices began to loosen downward, but the alumina gap still existed in June, so the depth of the price correction was limited
.
The raw material end of alumina runs at a high level, but still erodes the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry, the process of electrolytic aluminum resumption is slow, the production capacity is still lower than the same period last year, the production growth rate from January to April is only 1%, and the spot destocking has not slowed down, which inhibits the depth of the aluminum price pullback, which is expected to be around
14100.
