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The International Energy Agency IEA has released the highly anticipated "World Energy Outlook 2040"
.
While it's hard to assert that it won't predict the future, but rather offers a way to explore different possible futures, it doesn't shy away from the fact that policymakers around the world will be watching this report to help shape their energy agenda
.
The report notes that CO2 emissions are rising (1.
6% in 2017) and that "after three years of flattening" they are likely to continue "a slow upward trend through 2040", a trajectory "far from what scientific knowledge says is needed to combat climate change"
.
Overall, the IEA assumes four energy scenarios for 2040: the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), which reflects today's policy unchanged; New Policy Scenarios (NPS), including published policies and targets; Sustainable Development Scenarios (SDS), which aim to meet climate goals and provide universal access to energy and clean air; The electrified future scenario (FiES), which envisions the growing role
of the power sector.
On a relatively positive note, the IEA found that by 2040, solar PV capacity will exceed all other energy sources
except natural gas in each case.
Specifically, under the NPS scenario, solar PV will surpass wind power by 2025, hydropower by 2030, and coal power by 2040; Under the FiES scenario, solar PV will catch up with natural gas
in 2040.
The International Energy Agency IEA has released the highly anticipated "World Energy Outlook 2040"
.
While it's hard to assert that it won't predict the future, but rather offers a way to explore different possible futures, it doesn't shy away from the fact that policymakers around the world will be watching this report to help shape their energy agenda
.
The report notes that CO2 emissions are rising (1.
6% in 2017) and that "after three years of flattening" they are likely to continue "a slow upward trend through 2040", a trajectory "far from what scientific knowledge says is needed to combat climate change"
.
Overall, the IEA assumes four energy scenarios for 2040: the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), which reflects today's policy unchanged; New Policy Scenarios (NPS), including published policies and targets; Sustainable Development Scenarios (SDS), which aim to meet climate goals and provide universal access to energy and clean air; The electrified future scenario (FiES), which envisions the growing role
of the power sector.
On a relatively positive note, the IEA found that by 2040, solar PV capacity will exceed all other energy sources
except natural gas in each case.
Specifically, under the NPS scenario, solar PV will surpass wind power by 2025, hydropower by 2030, and coal power by 2040; Under the FiES scenario, solar PV will catch up with natural gas
in 2040.