Soda ash market is expected to bounce back

Since late August, the domestic soda ash market price has bottomed out and stabilized

Insufficient operating rate, destocking is accelerated

Since the beginning of this year, the price of soda ash has risen from 2,350 yuan at the beginning of the year to a high of nearly 3,000 yuan in June

Li Jiahao, an analyst at Nanhua Futures Energy Chemical, believes that in the early stage, the power supply in southern China was tightening, soda ash production enterprises were under-operated, destocking has accelerated in the past two weeks, and some caustic soda factories have raised their ex-factory prices

In terms of inventory, the monitoring data of Longzhong Information shows that in mid-August, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was close to 500,000 tons, which was relatively low; the available days of soda ash inventory in some glass factories were close to 26 days, which fell to an absolute low; the delivery inventory was 200,000 tons, at a relatively low level

Baichuan Yingfu analysis data shows that on August 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was more than 400,000 tons, down 11.

In terms of production capacity, the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu show that the total domestic production capacity of soda ash is 34.

It is worth noting that from the beginning of 2021 to date, soda ash production enterprises have maintained high profits

Photovoltaic expansion demand can be driven by exports

Soda ash is divided into light alkali and heavy alkali, among which light alkali is mostly used in daily glass, detergent, water softener and food industry; heavy alkali is mainly used in the production of flat glass, float glass and photovoltaic glass

From the perspective of the industry, the incremental demand brought about by the production of photovoltaic glass is the core driving force behind the rise in soda ash prices

According to data provided by China Building Glass and Industrial Glass Association, from January to July, the new production capacity of photovoltaic glass nationwide increased by 63.

In addition, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised the forecast for new domestic photovoltaic installations in 2022 by 10GW.

In addition, overseas energy prices are high, especially in Europe, the price of natural gas has repeatedly hit new highs, which makes the price of overseas soda ash rise, and also drives a large number of exports of soda ash in China

According to feedback from many companies, the export of soda ash is expected to maintain a high level in the next few months

Fundamentally oriented to the upside in a good shock

With the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" demand season, the superimposed overseas demand continues to exceed expectations, and the production capacity is limited in stages.

The Changjiang Securities Research Report believes that the domestic real estate industry has been sluggish since 2022, the demand for traditional downstream float glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash brought by emerging fields has increased considerably, which is expected to hedge some of the impact

"The supply stage of soda ash is limited, exports continue to grow at a high rate, the demand for heavy caustic soda is rising steadily, and the sales of light caustic soda are improving
.
Buy hedging opportunities on the disk to reduce production costs
.
" Founder Futures analysis believes
.

Li Jiahao said that the follow-up trend of soda ash prices mainly depends on demand
.
In the short term, low inventory, weak expectations, high valuation, and strong basis make soda ash maintain a shock pattern
.
In the long run, it is necessary to verify the demand through the inventory situation.
If the destocking can be maintained, the price of soda ash is expected to reach a new level
.
If the real estate policy is frequent, it will also help to repair the spot price of soda ash
.

　　Long Hao, chairman of Jinding Asset Management Co.
, Ltd.
, believes that under the background of "double carbon", the demand for soda ash in new energy and other fields has steadily increased
.
It is expected that the growth in demand for soda ash may continue into the second half of next year, and the price of soda ash will rise steadily
.
The performance of leading soda ash companies will continue to grow, and there is room for growth
.