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Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the late start of downstream work has led to more accumulation of PVC inventory, and it is expected that the accumulation of inventory will be more
under the slow recovery of the downstream.
Under the high inventory, the upstream of chemicals has begun to reduce the load since last week, and PVC companies are no exception, but the load reduction of PVC last week is more passive load reduction, mainly because of the transportation of calcium carbide at the raw material end and the shortage
of calcium carbide itself.
Calcium carbide transportation and production have resumed over the weekend, and under these conditions, PVC medium and large enterprises will maintain high starts
.
The PVC industry is one of the few enterprises with better profits in the chemical industry, so the load decline of PVC enterprises is much lower than that of chemical enterprises
such as PE/PP/PTA.
The most discussed in the industry is when the financial pressure of PVC production enterprises can force enterprises to continue to reduce the burden, in the slow recovery of demand, high inventory, and pessimistic mentality, the time to reduce the load is likely to be at the end of next week
.
It is difficult to recover quickly from labor-intensive downstream construction of small and medium-sized enterprises: PVC downstream is mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, stipulating that enterprises can start work on February 10, foreigners must be isolated for 14 days, and small enterprises are difficult to meet the isolation needs in terms of manpower and material resources, which greatly inhibits the motivation
of small product processing enterprises.
Enterprises without orders in the years ago started work more slowly: large and medium-sized enterprises had post-holiday orders in the previous year, while small enterprises had a short order cycle, the number of orders received years ago was not much, and the demand stagnated after the year and there were few
new orders.
PVC demand elasticity is small, low prices are difficult to promote high demand: for PE/pp commodities close to daily consumer goods, low prices can increase some demand, but PVC downstream is mainly real estate, in addition to the epidemic real estate start than mechanized product enterprises demand is more backward, the main reason is that just demand, demand elasticity is small
.
External prices are stable, and US Gulf prices have risen, but in view of the opening of export space, export volume will only increase by tens of thousands of tons, which will have little
relief for domestic inventories.
In addition, domestic PVC production and consumption account for a high proportion of the world, and external prices will follow the domestic price
downward.
It is difficult for the outer disk to form a boost
to the inner disk.
In view of the fact that spot fundamentals will continue to deteriorate, it is difficult for 05 to rise, short orders can wait for a pullback to exit around 6000-6100, and it is estimated that 05 can fall below 6000
.
The 09 contract can be long around 6100, and it will increase as 09
downward.
