Slow demand growth LLDPE main contract fluctuates in a narrow range

News: As of the 11th, the overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises was about 41%, +4% week-on-week; The overall operating rate of pipe enterprises is about 64%, +7% month-on-month; The start of packaging film has not changed much, and the overall operating rate is more than
60%.
With the arrival of the agricultural film season, orders are gradually followed, agricultural film enterprises are expected to start and stock, and the digestion of raw materials is accelerated, which has a certain support
for the price of raw materials in the later period.
Packaging film enterprises replenish a small amount of warehouses, and the enthusiasm for procurement is general
.
However, in the face of the current 70th anniversary of the National Day, many regions have issued relevant production restrictions and travel restrictions, and the production of terminal enterprises has been blocked
.

The PE inventory of domestic polyethylene enterprises (oil + coal) has decreased in this cycle, with a week-on-week decrease of 10.
98%.

In terms of varieties, LDPE inventory decreased by 14.
05% week-on-week; HDPE inventory decreased by 14.
53% week-on-week; LLDPE inventory decreased by 3.
28%
week-on-week.
Among them, the total inventory of PE of two barrels of oil continued to decline, down 9.
60% week-on-week and 10.
83%
year-on-year.
Among them, Sinopec's PE inventory decreased by 16.
38% week-on-week; CNPC PE inventories decreased by 5.
32%
week-on-week.
PE inventories of coal-fired enterprises continued to decline, down 14.
59%
week-on-week.
Traders' PE inventories fell by 15.
38%
week-on-week.

Spot market: domestic polyethylene market narrow finishing
.
The prices of the main regional sales companies are basically stable, linear futures first rise and then decline, the trading atmosphere of the spot market is light, the merchants' offers are slightly adjusted, most of the downstream complete pre-holiday stocking, and sporadic transactions are mixed
.
As of the noon close, the North China market fluctuated around 50 yuan / ton; The East China and South China markets are temporarily stable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipt reported 4594 lots, intraday +696 lots; It is in the all-time high zone
.
Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 242322 lots, -5085 lots, short positions are 276276 lots, -3486 lots, long and short are reduced together, and net space is reduced
.

Summary: The sharp decline in international oil prices has dampened the enthusiasm of industry players to enter the market to a certain extent; In the later period, Dushanzi Petrochemical and other devices were started up one after another, which suppressed the rebound pressure to a certain extent; Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, although demand is expected to improve, but there is still insufficient support for prices; However, the atmosphere in the spot market has improved slightly, and merchants have generally raised unit prices
.
Port inventories declined, down 72,500 tons year-on-year, and the two barrels of oil PE inventories continued to decrease significantly, and the decline was relatively large, reaching 10.
98%.

The display destocking speed is
acceptable.
The downstream agricultural film start is growing slowly, and merchants mostly maintain the purchase restriction strategy on demand, mainly to consume current inventory
.
At present, downstream demand is still growing slowly, and the upward momentum driving prices may be insufficient, and it is expected that the rebound space is limited
.