Sino-US trade negotiations are more optimistic, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum first suppresses and then rises

Market focus: (1) The US core PCE price index rose 0.
1% m/m in October, up 0.
1% expected, and unchanged from the previous month
.
U.
S.
jobless claims last week were 213,000 versus an estimated 221,000
.
(2) In 2019, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be reduced by about 2.
69 million tons, most of which will be transferred
from the northern region to the southwest region.
As major domestic aluminum producers reduced production due to accidents in the third quarter, it is expected that the output in 2019 will reach 35.
7 million tons, down 0.
97%
from the total output of 36.
05 million tons in 2018.

Spot analysis: On November 28, spot A00 aluminum reported 13940-13980 yuan / ton, the average price was 13960 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
Intraday cargo holders are more active, middlemen are willing to receive goods at low prices, and the trading between the two sides is acceptable, but a large market has less purchases, lack of this part of participation, and the overall transaction between traders is not as good as yesterday
.
Downstream on-demand procurement, receiving goods is mediocre without much highlights
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 70,058 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 2,461 tons; On November 27, LME aluminum stocks were 1228325 tons, down 1,150 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract were 65627 lots, a daily increase of 487 lots, a short position of 70796 lots, a daily decrease of 589 lots, a net short position of 5169 lots, a daily decrease of 1076 lots, more increase and a decrease in net space
.

Market research and judgment: On November 28, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2001 first suppressed and then rose
.
Sino-US trade negotiations are optimistic, the possibility of an agreement between the two sides increases, superimposed on the early production reduction of electrolytic aluminum and the low operating rate of aluminum products, the current electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and aluminum rod inventory continue to deteriorate, the support for aluminum prices is strengthened, but Sino-US trade has not reached a substantive agreement, the market sentiment has dragged down, the US economic data has strongly boosted the dollar, and upstream alumina inventories have risen, prices have fallen, and there is pressure
above aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the holders are more active in shipments, the middlemen have a strong willingness to receive goods at low prices, and the two sides can trade fairly, but a large market has less procurement, lack of this part of participation, downstream on-demand procurement
.
Technically, the main daily MACD red column of the Shanghai aluminum 2001 contract rebounded, and the mainstream short positions were reduced, and the short-term shock was expected to be strong
.