Sino-US trade dispute temporarily suspended, Shanghai rubber under the momentum of exploration weakened

Night trading: RU1905 contract opening price 11150 yuan / ton, the highest price 11180 yuan / ton, the lowest price 11120 yuan / ton, the closing price 11150 yuan / ton; Down 0 yuan / ton, down 0%.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10200/10500 (-100/0) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17-year full latex quotation 10200/10400 (-100/-100) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 17-year whole milk tax quotation 10600 (0) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10250 (-50) yuan / ton
.

Qingdao bonded zone composite rubber, mixed glue spot quotation: SMR20 compound, mixing 9950 (0/-50), STR20 compound, mixing 10000 (0/-100).

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 390 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 319980 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 410 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong decreased by 20 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

Thai raw material price: raw film 38.
25 (+0.
13); cigarette film 40.
79 (+0.
32); Glue 36.
5 (0); cup glue 32.
5 (0).

The Shanghai rubber RU1905 contract was weak in intraday volatility on Tuesday and flattened
overnight.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line is above the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar continues; On the daily chart, the K-line is above the 10-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continues
.
Trading volume decreased, positions increased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 66213 (+2335), short orders 98412 (+2932), net short 32199 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
Kumho Tire's latest financial report shows that in the third quarter, sales revenue was 634.
7 billion won, down 15.
9% year-on-year and 4.
5%
month-on-month.
Operating profit loss for the same period was KRW 38 billion, down 16,159% year-on-year and 200%
sequentially.
Net profit margin was -11%.

The company attributed the poor performance to lower demand in the domestic and North American replacement tire markets, and the reduction of production by major automakers.
rising raw material costs; Factors
such as the low exchange rate of relevant countries.

In the third quarter, sales performance in all major markets in South Korea decreased 5.
5% year-on-year and increased 3.
7%
sequentially.
North America grew 1.
3% year-over-year and 7.
5%
sequentially.
The Chinese market fell 30.
5% year-on-year and 10%
month-on-month.
The European market decreased 28.
5% year-on-year and 16.
6%
month-on-month.

2.
On December 10, the passenger car production and sales data released by the China Passenger Car Association for November, and the retail sales of passenger cars in November 2018 were 2.
02 million units, down 18% from November 2017.

Cumulative sales from January to November reached 20.
152 million units, down 4.
0%
y/y.
Negative full-year sales growth is a foregone conclusion
.

As of the close of the night session, the surface premium mixed spot was 890-940 yuan / ton
.
Exchange warehouse receipts are registered centrally, and the increase is obvious
.
November's heavy-duty truck data ended a four-year losing streak, and sales are expected to reach a new high
throughout the year, supported by data in the first half of the year.
Compared with passenger cars, the heavy-duty truck market has medium and long-term policy support
.
Affected by the Sino-US trade dispute, the decline in tires exported to the United States was obvious
.
Thailand said it would reduce the total area under cultivation and increase domestic consumption, and planned to pave rubber roads
for 80,000 villages.
The Sino-US trade dispute has been suspended, global supply has gradually entered the off-season, the momentum of Shanghai rubber continues to decline, but the upside should not be too high, at 3 pm local time on the 11th, Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was released on bail, the uncertainty of the peripheral market has eased, it is recommended that investors can consider the short around 11000
.