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Last week, Shanghai aluminum due to the holiday period, the market aluminum ingot inventory arrival increased sharply, put pressure on aluminum prices, from the plate point of view, short-term market optimism boosted, aluminum prices stabilized, but the increase is limited, the medium-term weak idea remains unchanged
.
From the perspective of the plate, Sino-US negotiations may tend to be optimistic, with limited impact on the market, and lack of favorable boost, the shock trend of Lun aluminum may be difficult to change
.
In terms of macro, Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Market Operation of the Ministry of Commerce, mentioned at the press conference that overall, China has a broad market and a middle-income group of 400 million, with good consumption growth and strong resilience, and although the consumption growth rate in 2019 may further slow down, the scale will still maintain steady and rapid growth
.
The decline in consumption was further confirmed
.
The new round of Sino-US trade talks, which took place in Beijing on Thursday and Friday, has not yet come to fruition, but it is expected to be optimistic
.
U.
S.
retail sales data for December fell 1.
2% month-on-month, up 0.
1% expected and up 0.
2%
in the previous month.
December retail sales data fell far short of expectations and the previous month, recording its biggest drop in more than nine years, signaling a marked slowdown in U.
S.
economic activity at the end of 2018 and validating the Fed's concerns about
the outlook for the U.
S.
economy.
In terms of the market, in the first trading week after the holiday, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, and spot prices rose after following the futures to make up for the decline, basically recovering to the pre-holiday level
.
Inventory, the last warehouse receipt was 532769 tons, an increase of about 6% from last week, the Spring Festival accumulation was lower than market expectations and lower than the same period in 2018, but the total amount of warehouse receipts was still higher than the 2000-2017 range; Aluminum inventories in the previous period increased by 31,914 tons to 736675 tons
from last week.
Domestic consumption of aluminum ingot stocks totaled 1.
617 million tons, an increase of about 17% from last week, and the accumulation range of Spring Festival stocks was similar to that of the past few years, at a relatively high level
since 2011.
LME stocks of 1,266,600 tonnes, down about 1% from last week, rebounded slightly from mid-October 2018 but remain at their lowest level since 2008
.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the accumulation of 300,000 tons of aluminum ingots and 70,000 tons of aluminum rods during the holiday is basically normal
.
Spot supply and demand continued to remain relatively loose
.
From the perspective of futures, Lun aluminum maintained a downward trend, and Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate
weakly near the lower edge of the large range.
Aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rebound, for reference
only.
Pay attention to the further progress
of the Sino-US negotiations.
