Short-term supply disruptions in the copper market Limited price decline

On Wednesday, the main Shanghai copper market opened at 49650 yuan / ton, and from the opening to the end of the Asian morning trading session, copper prices mostly consolidated in a narrow range above the daily moving average, during which the low of 49080 yuan / ton was supported twice
.
In the afternoon, more into the short flat, copper prices fluctuated up to the intraday high of 49580 yuan / ton, and fell slightly to around 49500 yuan / ton at the end of the day, closing at 49520 yuan / ton, up 540 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.
1%.

During last night's European and American sessions, due to the clarity of the Brexit situation, the euro and the pound strengthened, investors took profits on the US dollar, the US index fell slightly, and London copper ended the day's decline pattern
.
In the evening, copper prices rose straight from below the daily average under pressure in the afternoon, to 6083 US dollars / ton, and then maintained a volatile upward posture, in the US market, copper prices reached the intraday high of 6123.
5 US dollars / ton, after the short-term touch, copper prices fell slightly, long positions increased at the end of the session, the price rebounded to a narrow range around 6100 US dollars / ton, closing at 6100 US dollars / ton
.

Copper prices have recently maintained low volatility, due to market performance supply and demand are weak, the US economy is growing strongly, the US dollar index is stable at a high level, the United States actively suppresses oil prices, and the European market is dragged down by macro events such as Brexit, the recent performance is weak, indirectly pressure copper prices, investors are affected by macro sentiment is stronger, long and short sides performance stalemate, the market is full of expectations for the future interest rate hike policy of the United States and the announcement of next year's demand at the annual meeting of major copper mines at the end of the year, copper prices still maintain a downward trend in the short term, Watch for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's participation in economic discussions at the Dallas Fed meeting, focusing on changes
in bullish and short forces.

In terms of spot, on the last day of contract delivery, the supply of holders is sufficient, and the premium is closer to the benchmark price of the exchange, which is less affected by the basis of the next month, and the basis of the next month is currently fluctuating
around 50 yuan / ton.
Uncertainty ahead of the meeting between the leaders of the two stocks is worrying, and investor risk aversion has put pressure
on copper prices.

In addition, due to the interference of foreign refined copper production capacity, the short-term supply of refined copper around China is still tight, and China's refined copper supply is relatively loose, but the current smelting capacity still has not reached the peak, or it is difficult to make up for the interference of foreign refining capacity; However, the expected release of smelting capacity in China will accelerate after the copper concentrate processing fee is reached, so this limits the impact
of smelting capacity disruption on copper prices.
U.
S
.
stocks continued to fall sharply, and the dollar index rebounded, putting pressure on copper prices, but short-term supply disruptions somewhat hindered copper price declines.
However, with the gradual progress of China's smelting capacity, the short-term outlook for copper prices is mainly
weak.