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On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum opened at the 14,500 yuan / ton integer mark in the morning, bulls actively entered the market at the beginning of the session, pushing up Shanghai aluminum to touch the intraday high of 14,580 yuan / ton, and then the market sentiment changed, the high early entry bulls rushed to leave the market, Shanghai aluminum fell to the daily average of 14430 yuan / ton in response, the afternoon iron ore high leaked rapidly, the metal was dragged down to varying degrees, Shanghai aluminum once fell 14260 yuan / ton, the end of the session part of the bears closed the market at a low end, Shanghai aluminum repair part of the decline closed at 14365 yuan / ton, The volume decreased to 407896 lots, and the open position decreased by 2770 lots to 319268 lots
.
Short-term Shanghai aluminum high volatility, pay attention to the dynamics of surrounding varieties, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum or downtest the 5-day moving average in the evening, be wary of the closing trend
of a large number of positions in the early stage.
In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1912 US dollars / ton in the morning, Lun aluminum basically followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum during the Asian session, and the low level rose back to the opening level after a slight low in the afternoon, and the low level fell sharply in the afternoon to touch 1896.
5 US dollars / ton, entering the European trading session The outer metal repaired the decline to varying degrees, Lun aluminum oscillated upward, but the upper pressure daily moving average resistance is difficult to form an effective breakthrough, as of 17:17 Lun aluminum 1906.
5 US dollars / ton, it is expected that Lun aluminum wide range oscillation, around 1900 US dollars / Tons test integer threshold support
.
In terms of the market, intraday aluminum changed to 1703 contracts in the month, and aluminum fluctuated
violently.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 14140-14160 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 220-200 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 14120-14140 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 14150-14170 yuan / ton
.
Holders are eager to exchange cash at the high, middlemen have limited speculative opportunities, mainly for downstream pick-ups, the high level of aluminum fluctuates violently, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the overall transaction is cautious
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum continued to decline in the month, and part of the decline was repaired at the end of the day, and the transaction price was concentrated at 14090~14110 yuan / ton, and a small amount of transactions
.
In terms of industry, data monitoring shows that the domestic real estate aluminum consumption (including monthly renovation of old houses) in 2016 was about 11.
765 million tons, an increase of 13.
7 percentage points over January to November and a year-on-year increase of 6.
1%; Rusal announced that aluminum production in the fourth quarter of last year was 930,000 tons, up slightly 1% quarter-on-quarter, alumina production was 1.
939 million tons, up 4% quarter-on-quarter, and aluminum production in 2016 totaled 3.
685 million tons, up 1.
1%
year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, as of February 16, the social aluminum inventory in the five places in the country was 878,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last Thursday, and the inventory recovery is still continuing
.
Due to the sharp increase in inventory, the spot pressure is still obvious, the spot discount continues to maintain a discount of 200 yuan / ton after the month change, and the next period of the selling period buying operation aluminum is still under pressure
.
On the plate, Shanghai aluminum rushed back down to close the shadow, the high long and short divergence increased, considering the arbitrage behavior on the period aluminum continued to put pressure, the later aluminum price may
fall.
