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The main positive factors of the recent rise in PVC prices are rising costs, improved demand, and declining inventory, and the main negative factors are the increase in supply month-on-month, and the short-term positive factors have a slightly stronger impact than the bearish factors, and it is expected that the short-term price is mainly oscillating operation
.
Two installations are scheduled for maintenance in late March, which are expected to have little impact on PVC
starts.
Traders' quotations fluctuate limited, some shipment intentions increase, there are price cuts and profit concessions, the downstream market just needs to replenish the stock at the dip, the actual trading atmosphere is cold, and the volume needs to be improved
.
The total social inventory in East and South China continued to fall, falling narrowly to 341,400 tons, but still slightly higher than the level of the same period last year by 1.
31%.
The overall operating load of PVC remained high, factory inventories continued to decrease, social inventories began to decrease, and the overall fundamentals improved slightly
.
At present, international crude oil began to rebound again, coupled with the improvement of macro atmosphere, and the rise in upstream calcium carbide prices, the strengthening of cost support, the overall PVC market is difficult to fall, PVC futures prices have signs of rising again, it is expected that the PVC market is prone to rise and fall
in the short term.
Continue to pay attention to the impact
of policy trends, crude oil, macro, etc.
on the market.
In terms of inventory, after the destocking rate of social inventory slowed down and factory inventory returned to the accumulation range, the price pressure declined, mainly due to the market's expectation of shrinking demand due to the epidemic factors
.
Follow-up recommendations continue to focus on the restraining effect
of the epidemic on domestic demand.
In the medium term, the late stable growth policy will continue to exert force, the probability of marginal recovery of the real estate industry is large, PVC demand is expected to improve, inventory will enter a downward cycle, the probability of price oscillation upward is large, and it is expected to break through the upper edge
of the recent oscillation range.
In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in demand downstream of PVC to prevent the adverse impact
of downstream demand on prices that are not as expected.
