Short-term macro expectations optimistic aluminum continues to rise

Today's Shanghai aluminum extended its rally, as of 3 pm, the main 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 14595, up 195, up 1.
35%.

Macro-level, the United States is expected to agree on a comprehensive stimulus package, China's Caixin service industry PMI is in the expansion range for five consecutive months, the economy has recovered steadily, and macro sentiment is relatively optimistic
in the short term.

In terms of supply, with the recovery of aluminum prices, aluminum companies have maintained a high profit state for nearly half a year since April, which has accelerated the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and 1 million tons of production capacity will be released in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on aluminum prices on the supply side has increased
significantly.

In terms of demand, real estate is that the overall demand for aluminum remains stable, automobiles benefit from the recovery of demand, and it is difficult for aluminum exports to improve
significantly.
Therefore, the marginal increase in demand in the fourth quarter was limited
.

In general, due to the acceleration of the pace of supply-side release and the slowdown of the recovery rhythm of the demand-side peak season, and after the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the fourth quarter, downstream demand will turn into the traditional off-season, and aluminum ingots will return to the accumulation cycle
.
The change in the rhythm of supply and demand has made aluminum prices gradually enter a downward cycle
over time.
However, in the short term, in the case of optimistic macro expectations and maintenance of demand, aluminum prices are running strongly, or will provide better entry points, and it is recommended to wait for the right time to sell short
.