-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
-
Cosmetic Ingredient
- Water Treatment Chemical
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
Medium-term logic: the rigid increase in global copper concentrate supply in the next 5 years is relatively small, and the elastic increase mainly depends on the price, and although the refining capacity is more released, but limited by the supply of copper concentrate, the actual supply increment is not enough to make the copper price fall again, so the medium-term copper price bottom is expected to be obvious
.
Short-term logic: Before China's new smelting capacity is launched, the spot market is still tight, but import profit is expected to promote short-term import growth, spot tension may ease this week, but it is estimated that it is difficult to change the tense pattern; The United States continues to increase its trade war chips, and the copper market pattern has not changed for the time being, still showing a pattern
of near strength and far weakness.
On the 13th, the premium of the spot market was lower than that of the previous trading day, and the mainstream brand spot in the market was more sufficient, especially the quotation of imported copper, and the market premium was suppressed; In addition, as imports continue to remain profitable, the import source generally expands the discount, and the price difference between various brands widens; Trading among traders increased as premiums generally fell again, but downstream buying participation was not active
due to the overall rebound in copper prices.
On the 13th, refined copper spot imports maintained a profitable pattern, and the supply of imported copper arrived in the spot market was also more, and the overall supply of the market increased
.
The warehouse receipts of the previous period rebounded slightly on the 13th, and the 1809 contract was close to delivery, and the current position was 16,700 lots, and the warehouse receipt was around 38,000 tons, which can basically meet the delivery demand
.
In addition, in terms of term structure, 1810 and 1811 continue to strengthen follow-up contracts, but the more distant term structure has shown signs of strengthening, so the term structure has gradually entered the conversion period
.
On the 13th, LME Asian inventories continued to decline, LME inventories fell to 225,000 tons, and the current inventory elasticity in China's surrounding markets is still not high
.
On the whole, from the supply side, the pressure is mainly concentrated from the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, and from the current production capacity, the production time may be more concentrated
.
However, in the short term, due to the stimulation of import profits, the source of import goods has gradually increased, suppressing spot premiums, and the recent term structure has changed to a certain extent, and has gradually entered the conversion period, and the previous term structure has gradually chosen the opportunity to close positions
.
In addition, absolute copper prices have rebounded stimulated by Sino-US trade negotiations, but due to the lack of tangible results and the prospect of smelting capacity, the short-term absolute copper price expectation is still weak
.
