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Recently, the global market hot spots are frequent, asset price fluctuations are significantly amplified, Shanghai copper prices oscillated in the range of 50,000-53,000 yuan / ton for up to four months, and the later trend of copper prices has attracted much attention
.
The mismatch between upstream and downstream supply and demand caused by the impact of the epidemic in the early stage has been alleviated, and copper prices have been weak in the short term against the background of a steady recovery in supply and no obvious bright spots in downstream consumption
.
The performance of domestic copper consumption in October was acceptable, but the traditional consumption season is about to pass, and it is doubtful
that consumption will continue to pick up.
Since the end of September, the output of refined copper in some parts of the country has increased, the average weekly output has remained at about 20,000 tons, much higher than the annual average weekly output of 17,000 tons, the refrigeration industry and cable orders have improved after the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the operating rate of copper pipe processing enterprises has basically remained at about 75%, and the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises is about 90%, but the industrial differentiation is still relatively serious, the operating rate of large processing plants remains high, and the orders of small and medium-sized processing plants are not performing well
.
With the advent of the off-season of consumption, if there is no substantial domestic terminal stimulus policy in the future, it is expected that domestic downstream consumption will not improve significantly in November
.
In addition, the second intensification of the overseas epidemic has also dragged down the global economic recovery process
.
Recently, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and other countries have announced the closure of their countries again, and it is not ruled out that more countries with serious epidemics will adopt stricter measures in the future, and the focus of the market may return to the epidemic from the global economic recovery
.
Although the panic effect caused by the repeated epidemic on the financial market is likely to be less than in the early stage, the inconvenience of travel and work will have a substantial drag
on the recovery of overseas economies.
Overall, the impact of the epidemic on the output of major mines in South America has diminished marginally, and copper supply will tend to be loose
in the future under the assumption that the overseas epidemic will not cause another disruption to the copper mine end.
China's traditional consumption off-season is approaching, if there is no follow-up to the introduction of a large profit policy, short-term downstream consumption is difficult to improve, combined with the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the pace of global economic recovery, copper prices still have greater resistance
.
