Short-term bearish factors are concentrated aluminum prices continue to fluctuate

At present, the main reason for domestic destocking is that there are fewer arrivals, and areas with less serious impact of the epidemic are stocking for May Day in advance, but in the long run, the upstream resumption of production is relatively fast, the epidemic inhibits downstream demand, and the speed of demand recovery is not as fast as the speed of supply resumption of production.

Continue to pay attention to the impact of
the recent outbreak on production and transportation in various places.
Continue to pay attention to changes in inventory, production capacity and the situation in Russia and Ukraine
.

Supply side: It is expected that daily production will pick up month-on-month in May, and overseas aluminum interference will still be large
.
Consumption: Terminal demand has rebounded seasonally, but consumption has been suppressed
in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic.
The downstream has not fully recovered due to the epidemic, especially logistics affecting warehousing
.
The short-term contradiction between domestic aluminum supply and demand is small, but the confidence of domestic consumption expectations is lacking, and aluminum prices continue to fluctuate
.

In the medium and long term, the domestic supply is growing steadily, the demand-side market has expectations for the marginal relaxation of the real estate field, the country's future UHV construction scale is unprecedented, the market is expected to be good for aluminum demand, and aluminum prices remain optimistic
.