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Aluminum prices both fluctuated higher yesterday, Shanghai aluminum closed at 19675 yuan / ton overnight, up 0.
59%, Lun aluminum closed at 2504.
5 points, up 0.
08%.
Short-term aluminum prices are technically higher on the support of low inventories, and the current spot supply is tightening, short-term futures aluminum prices do not rule out a rush up, but it is expected to fall back in the later stage
.
On the macro front, the secondary dumping was less than expected, and market sentiment has been basically released, waiting for follow-up policy guidance
.
Overseas, the Markit manufacturing PMI index in the United States in July was higher than expected, hitting a record high of 63.
1, which was somewhat positive for aluminum prices
.
In summary, it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will continue to remain high, with some upside
.
The fundamentals maintain a weak supply and demand, and the power cuts in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia are superimposed on the heavy rainfall in Henan, and the production capacity release on the supply side is not good
.
On the demand side, consumption in the off-season has a weakening trend, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has declined, and the disaster in Henan has made the aluminum plate and foil industry worse
.
Based on the market's outlook for non-ferrous metals such as copper for post-disaster reconstruction in Henan, the price of Shanghai aluminum may increase
in the short term driven by sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the domestic electrolytic aluminum community continued to maintain destocking, with stocks in major regions at 782,000 tons (down 27,000 tons from last Thursday), and Shanghai, Wuxi, Hainan and other places contributed the main decline
.
The continued destocking trend will continue to support aluminum prices
.
After August, the traditional peak season and subsequent production restrictions in the northern heating season
.
Northern heating is likely to further aggravate the shortage of thermal coal and bring about a decline
in power supply.
This makes it possible that in the next 4-5 months, there will be a pattern of demand recovery and supply will continue to be limited
.
Therefore, according to the current pace of dumping reserves, it is not enough to alleviate the domestic shortage form, and it may require the import window to continue to open
.
Aluminum prices are expected to reach new highs
as social inventories continue to decline after a mild consolidation in August.
