Short-term aluminum prices are weak and affected by poor domestic market demand

On the macro front, China's social financing increased by 4.
65 trillion yuan in March, compared with 1.
19 trillion yuan in the previous month, and 1.
28 trillion yuan
more than the same period last year.
China added 3.
13 trillion yuan in new RMB loans in March, compared with 1.
23 trillion yuan in the previous month, up 395.
1 billion yuan from a year earlier.

China's M2 money supply rose 9.
7% y/y in March vs 9.
2% prior; M1 increased 4.
7% y/y vs.
4.
7%
prior.
March CPI rose 1.
5% year-on-year vs.
0.
9% prior; PPI rose 8.
3% year-on-year and 8.
8%
in the previous month.
From the data point of view, the epidemic pushed up the CPI rebound, social finance rebounded sharply in March, and the easing increased, but the epidemic factors still constitute a greater drag, and the possibility
of continued efforts is not ruled out in the future.

In terms of the market, the domestic epidemic situation is grim, and many cities have been closed and controlled, and the impact on the aluminum industry is mainly concentrated in logistics and processing enterprises to reduce production
.
On Monday, the national electrolytic aluminum community warehouse increased slightly by 5,000 tons to 1.
061 million tons, and it was still difficult to enter and exit the warehouse in Wuxi, accumulating 15,000 tons
.
From the perspective of the aluminum rod market, the quotation of processing fees in Nanchang and Foshan has been raised, and aluminum prices do not continue to fall
sharply.

Summary: The situation in Russia and Ukraine is repeated, the energy shortage is difficult to solve in the short term, overseas reported inventories continue to decline, premiums continue to rise, the supply and demand pattern continues to be tight, and LME aluminum prices are strong and tough
under the support of extremely low inventories in Western Europe.
The domestic epidemic affected the expansion of consumption, the peak season was postponed, and the pace of resumption of production accelerated, but the lockdown also had a very significant impact on logistics, the obvious inventory increased slightly against the season, the external strength and the internal weak pattern, the aluminum price fell to 20,500 yuan / ton line, basically erased the increase since the first quarter, the space below is limited, pay attention to the development of the epidemic and the spot procurement enthusiasm inflection point
.