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Overnight aluminum shock higher, Shanghai aluminum 11 contract rose to 15450 yuan / ton, considering that will gradually enter the delivery, spot premium will continue to fall, but high back structure maintenance, still can not see signs of accumulation, in the logic of destocking, speculation demand will make the price of goods in recent months more and more tight, although high aluminum prices will make downstream consumption decrease
.
Macro-level, affected by seasonal factors and a decline in bond issuance, China's credit growth slowed in October, the increase in social financing scale was basically in line with estimates, and new RMB loans were lower than expected
.
The payment was lower than expected
.
In terms of supply, the production capacity of aluminum enterprises has been further released, the industry operating rate has continued to rise, and the current industry operating capacity is at a high level, and the later output will gradually be
reflected.
In terms of demand, it is about to enter the seasonal traditional off-season, as well as the uncertainty of the heating season policy, downstream demand continues to slow down, and the order volume of processing enterprises decreases
.
On the whole, short-term inventory hovers at a low level, the off-season has not accumulated as expected, bringing some support to aluminum prices, while overseas supply is tight to promote the strong operation of aluminum aluminum, the current aluminum price stands firm at the 10,000 5 mark, pay attention to today's inventory data, over time, the rhythm of supply and demand will make aluminum ingots return to the accumulation cycle, maintain the medium-term short idea unchanged
.
Short-term aluminum prices are strong, wait and see
for the time being.
