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Last week, aluminum prices fell sharply from their highs, mainly affected by market sentiment, and long funds continued to withdraw
.
As of Friday night, Shanghai aluminum fell to 21,460 yuan / ton, down 12%
from the previous week.
The domestic spot market is generally transacted, and some regions purchase
on demand.
From late August to early September, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan successively introduced policies to reduce electrolytic aluminum production, and in mid-September, Guangxi further increased the weight, Qinghai and Ningxia limited production after November, and Guizhou joined the ranks of production restrictions on October 21
.
Due to the large number of captive power plants in the electrolytic aluminum industry, the price of thermal coal has fallen sharply, resulting in the weakening of the expectation of rising electrolytic aluminum costs
.
On the demand side, power cuts in Jiangsu and Guangdong are relaxing, and the impact of power cuts will gradually slow down
.
At present, the sharp decline in aluminum prices may stimulate the demand for some replenishment, and the consumption suppressed by high prices will be released
.
In terms of inventory, social stocks increased by 70,000 tons month-on-month to 957,000 tons, and there is continued pressure to accumulate stocks in the short term
.
At present, the interference of the production restriction policy continues, Qinghai and Ningxia limit production after November, and Guizhou joined the ranks of production restriction in late October
.
The fall in coal prices has weakened expectations of higher electrolytic aluminum costs
.
The demand side was previously suppressed by high prices and power restrictions, and the current power restrictions are gradually relaxed, and aluminum prices have adjusted significantly, which may be expected to boost consumption
.
Overall, the extreme speculation on the short-term nonferrous supply side has cooled down and the price of thermal coal has fallen sharply, and the market focus is on weak demand, considering that supply contraction is still possible and demand may be expected to improve, aluminum prices are adjusted in the short term, but should not be overly pessimistic; In the medium and long term, the supply-side reduction is still likely to strengthen, and Shanghai aluminum is still expected to hit 25,000
before the end of the year.
