Shipping fees plummeted 20%, falling for 4 consecutive months!

According to the Global Container Freight Index (FBX), the freight rate of global routes in July fell by 20% compared with May, from $8,236/FEU to $6,577/FEU
.

According to Drewry's latest report, spot freight rates have been falling for 4 consecutive months, and the weekly decline is getting bigger and bigger, and the growth rate of global port throughput this year has been sharply reduced to 2.
3% from the previous 4.
1%
.
Drewry stressed that the slowdown in freight demand this year is more severe than expected, which will accelerate the decline in spot freight rates and may also lead shipping companies to support freight rates by reducing capacity
.

Drewry predicts that freight rates in the container market will continue to fall in the future, Drewry said in its analysis that the spot market freight rates on the eight most important container routes between the United States, Europe and Asia are 16% lower than a year ago.
%
.

In addition, Germany's largest port Hamburg has struck for the first time in 30 years, and Europe's second largest port Antwerp-Bruges has also been hit hard by the strike, making the backlog of undelivered goods at European ports increasingly serious
.

Tear up the contract? Or wait to break the contract?

The latest situation announcement of ports in the major Nordic regions released by Maersk stated that the ports of Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp are facing continuous congestion and have even reached critical levels
.
The recent strikes in Europe will cause the nth shock to the global supply chain this year
.

Affected by the supply chain, the demand for shipping has also been shaken
.
According to industry insiders, the current spot freight is much lower than the contract freight, and both shipping companies and cargo owners are at a standoff
.
Shipping companies are waiting for the peak season, cargo owners are waiting for the freight to drop, and they are all waiting for the other party to break the contract and make concessions
.
Specifically, it depends on the market demand in mid-July to determine the freight rate trend
.

Shipping companies choose to "stop sailing and jumping to ports" to stabilize market freight rates.
The suspension arrangements for the next five weeks are as follows:

The three major alliances cancelled a total of 48 routes, including 23 cancellations by 2M, 19 cancellations by The Alliance, and 6 cancellations by Ocean Alliance
.

The third quarter is the peak season for traditional shipping.
However, factors such as supply chain chaos, inflation, and geopolitical conditions have led to a slowdown in the production of European and American companies.
However, many parties are cautious about high prices this year.
Whether it is materials or freight, they are holding a wait-and-see attitude, and it is unlikely to rise.
space
.

The impact of transportation, the industrial chain may be hit hard again!

With the decline in crude oil, the decline in the industrial chain and the decline in freight rates, the multi-party market gradually returned to rationality in the second quarter.
For example, the overall surge in 2021 may be difficult to reproduce
.
In addition, due to factors such as the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the implementation of bans by many EU countries, and the difficulty of mining raw materials, the industrial chain may be hit hard again, and the freight rate will hardly have the opportunity to rise in previous years
.

The economic recovery in the second half of the year still faces three major challenges!

Compared with the strong V-shaped recovery of the economy after the epidemic was brought under control in 2020, the path of this round of economic recovery may be more tortuous
.
In addition to the super contagiousness of the Omicron virus, which means that the epidemic is likely to repeat, the economic recovery in the second half of the year will still face three major challenges
.

The risk of stagflation in the global economy is increasing, and exports are under pressure

At present, inflation is the main contradiction in the global economy, forcing the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and major central banks to raise interest rates in unconventional steps
.
Raising interest rates cannot solve the inflationary pressure caused by the supply side, but it will definitely have a significant pull-down effect on aggregate demand, and the risk of recession in the fourth quarter of the European and American economies will increase
.
At the same time, substantial interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States and deceleration in demand will inevitably impact major economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America through capital outflows and export channels, leading to a contraction in global aggregate demand
.
In the first five months of this year, exports increased by 11% year-on-year, 12 percentage points higher than consumption growth and 7 percentage points higher than investment growth
.
Exports are the main driving force for economic growth
.
The sharp weakening of global demand in the second half of the year will inevitably affect export growth, thereby slowing down the pace of economic recovery
.

At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference has made it clear that China's economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening
.

The second economic dip since March has added to these pressures, hitting business and consumer confidence
.
Weakening expectations of enterprises and consumers → decline in investment and consumption willingness, shrinking demand → further weakening of business and consumer expectations The negative cycle will become the main obstacle to economic recovery
.
Changing the expectations of market players is easier said than done.
It not only requires short-term counter-cyclical adjustment measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, and financing support to be implemented as soon as possible, but also requires substantial progress in a series of reforms in the direction of marketization, legalization and internationalization
.

Real estate investment has continued to decline rapidly since the second half of last year

Although there are signs of bottoming recently, both real estate sales and investment are still negative year-on-year
.
Real estate sales are expected to gradually recover as mortgage rates are cut and more localities ease home purchase restrictions
.
However, policymakers have made it clear that this time they will not use real estate as a tool to stimulate the economy
.
The goal of the policy is to stabilize rather than stimulate the housing market
.
Taking into account the impact of the epidemic on residents' income, the uncertainty of the future, the higher housing ownership rate and the aging population in developed countries, the rebound of the real estate market in this round will be smaller than in previous years
.