Shanghai rubber trend is strong, oscillating short-term fundamentals are relatively stable

On the news, ANRPC's latest October report predicts that global sky rubber production in 2021 is expected to increase by 1.
8% year-on-year to 13.
836 million tons
.
In 2021, global consumption of tianjiao is expected to increase by 8.
3% year-on-year to 14.
028 million tons
.

On the supply side, in the next two weeks, Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas will be more disturbed by rain, and local raw material prices will be strongly supported; Near the shutdown, the raw material inventory in the Yunnan production area is small, the operating load is reduced, the factories producing full latex are striving to grab glue, and the rubber price in the production area is firm
.
On the whole, overseas production season basically entered the peak season in November, and the output of new rubber rose compared with the previous period, but the weather interference was frequent; In the medium term, we need to pay attention to how the La Niña phenomenon will play out in the
future global rubber supply off-season.
In terms of arrival and warehousing, ship freight rates rose sharply again, port dock workers and containers in production areas were tight, the market expected that the shipping schedule would continue to be delayed, the port storage rate declined, the arrival volume in November increased significantly compared with September, it was difficult or larger, the absolute amount of port inventory was likely to remain at a low level, the inflection point of accumulation was constantly delayed, and the expectation that it was difficult to accumulate significantly in the medium term may be gradually verified, and the fundamentals were favorable or gradually consolidated
.

In terms of demand, facing the situation of weak domestic demand and overseas market demand, there is a lack of significant growth points
on the whole.
At present, the finished product inventory of tire downstream dealers and retailers is basically saturated, the tire factory destocking cycle is basically over, or it has entered the seasonal active replenishment stage before the year, due to the current high cost of raw materials, the active accumulation range is expected to be suppressed
.
The demand side temporarily got out of the situation of dragging down the fundamentals in the early stage, but the bullish drive was insufficient
.

On the whole, the short-term fundamentals are relatively stable, paying attention to the weather in the main production areas, and the strong volatility is the mainstay; In the medium and long term, pay attention to the accumulation of social stocks in the off-season of global supply, wait for the forward signal to gradually become clear, and maintain optimistic expectations
.