Shanghai rubber to reduce positions upward short-term focus on pressure around 13300

News: 1.
In the first half of 2021, Cambodia exported 132,174 tons of rubber, an increase of 5.
7%
over the same period in 2020.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the average price in the same period was $1,677 per ton, up 28.
7%.

In the first half of this year, exports reached $222 million
.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19 years state-owned full latex reported 12800 (+400) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 12700 (+350) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 warehouse spot reported 1610 (-5) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 July cargo reported 1605 (-5) US dollars / ton
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant 11900 (+100) yuan / ton, into the concentrated dairy plant 11500 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of glue of dry rubber factory in Yunnan production area refers to 11.
9-12.
3 (-0.
1/+0) yuan/kg, and the purchase price of glue of concentrated dairy plant refers to 12.
0-12.
3 (+0/+0) yuan/kg
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 42.
5 (-2) baht/kg; Cup glue 41.
65 (+0) baht/kg
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 174800 tons, +150 tons; NR warehouse receipt 53192 tons, + 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2109 top 20 long positions 114072, -3476; short positions 158336, -9514; long and short reduction, net space reduction
.

Summary: At present, it is in the global seasonal production increase cycle of tianjiao, the weather in the main production areas is normal, and the raw materials continue to increase, but the epidemic in Thailand has caused the market to worry about
foreign workers.
The output of raw materials in Hainan production area is high, and the glue into the thick dairy plant is discounted into the price of the full latex factory, which is conducive to the increase of the amount of full latex; The cutting rate in Yunnan production area continued to increase, the cutting rate of Banna was about 8-90%, and the gum production of gum trees was basically normal, and rapid increments were expected
.
In terms of inventory, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to decrease week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline has expanded, it is reported that the number of arrivals in July will increase slightly month-on-month, but the absolute number is still at a low level
.
On the demand side, weak domestic and foreign sales, high factory finished product inventory, superimposed on environmental factors, most factories in Shandong have 3-4 days of maintenance phenomenon, last week the domestic tire factory operating rate fell sharply month-on-month, the recent is still based on digesting inventory, and it is expected that the start is still at a low level
.
The RU2109 contract reduced its position and closed higher, focusing on the pressure around 13300 in the short term, testing the support around 12600 below, and it is recommended to trade
in the 12600-13300 range.