Shanghai rubber shock weakened terminal demand is not good

The opening price of the Nichijiao 1904 contract is 155.
3 yen/kg, the highest price is 157 yen/kg, the lowest price is 154.
3 yen/kg, and the closing price is 154.
4 yen/kg; The trading volume was 6940 lots, and the position volume was 14441 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10100/10300 (-100/-100) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17-year full latex quotation 10100/10300 (-100/-100) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 17-year whole milk tax quotation 10500 (-100/-150) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10200 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 5390 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 283190 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 960 tons, Yunnan increased by 2900 tons, Shandong increased by 1530 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

As of October 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 31%.

The inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued the sharp adjustment at the end of September
.
Among them, 52,100 tons of natural rubber, 56,300 tons of synthetic rubber and 36,000 tons of compound rubber, a total of 112,000 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons
from the previous data release date.
In view of the rapid change in the current statistical caliber and the large change in inventory data, which has a greater impact on the market, it is decided to suspend the update of inventory data from this period and release it after it is stable
.
The next update date is initially scheduled for December, and the specific time is subject to release
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract weakened intraday volatility on Tuesday and stabilized overnight
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line is located above the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar turns green; On the daily chart, the K line is below the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar continues
.
The trading volume and position volume decreased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 53145 (-2702), short orders 74185 (-1038), net short 21040 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
Toyo Tire North America plans to invest USD 138 million to build a new plant
in Cartersville, Georgia.
When completed, the second phase will cover an area of 254,000 square feet and an annual production capacity of 2.
4 million passenger tires
.
The new facility was chosen in Georgia to strengthen distribution and inventory supply to meet the expanding network of retailers and growing demand
for tires.

As of the close of the night session, the surface premium mixed spot was 835-935 yuan / ton
.
Exchange inventories fell
sharply due to warehouse receipts.
Poor terminal demand has formed an industry consensus, only 4 of the 9 listed tire companies have achieved positive growth in operating income, and the pressure on rubber supply in the fourth quarter has not decreased, and the fundamentals have not changed much
.
The cold winter of the auto market industry has come, and if there is no policy hand to support it, it is difficult for downstream demand to improve
.
China's auto market will experience negative growth for the first time in 28 years, and a year-on-year decline in vehicle sales in 2018 is a foregone conclusion
.
Raw material prices fell, and Thailand said it would reduce the total planting area and increase domestic consumption
.
Near the end of the year, index rubber has arrived one after another, the supply has increased, and the supply and demand structure is difficult to change
.
Affected by factors such as macroeconomic downward pressure and the deepening of supply-demand contradictions, we expect that Shanghai rubber has little upside under the reduced pressure of warehouse receipts, and in the context of the collective weakening of commodities, Shanghai rubber may return to weakness
.
It is expected that the market will continue to be dominated by weak volatility during the day
.