Shanghai rubber shock weakened recommended to rebound short selling

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10400/10500 (-100/-100) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10300/10500 (-100/-100) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 10200 (0/0) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 11600 (0) yuan / ton
.

The last natural rubber futures warehouse receipt increased by 940 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 418810 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai Ping, Yunnan Ping, Shandong decreased by 60 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan increased by 1000 tons
.

The Shanghai rubber 1809 contract weakened intraday volatility on Wednesday
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line is below the moving average system, and the technical indicator MACD green bar continues; On the daily chart, the K-line is below the 5-day moving average, the short-term moving average is weak, and the technical indicator MACD green column continues
.
Trading volume decreased, positions increased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 81658 (+3886), short orders 110887 (+4912), net short 29229 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
According to the results of the "301 investigation", the United States announced the details
of its plan to impose tariffs on 50 billion US Chinese goods.
There are 58 pages of A4 paper, covering about 1,300 tariff entries
.
The tax numbers of rubber-related products are: 400610, 400912, 400942, 401011, 401130, 401213, 401219, 401699, etc
.
The list will not be implemented immediately, and will be followed by 60 days after multiple hearings
.

2.
Recently, at the 2018 China Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Annual Conference, Xie Guoping, Director of the Commercial Vehicle Research Office of the Information Resources Development Department of the State Information Center, made a specific analysis
of the commercial vehicle market in 2017 and the development of commercial vehicle production in 2018.
Taking all factors into account, we can give a full-year judgment that the overall growth of commercial vehicles will decline from 2017, and it is expected that 3.
9 million units will decline by 5% to 10%
for the full year.

We believe that the main contract switched to the 09 contract, and as of the close of the night trading 05-09 price spread closed at 380 yuan / ton, the 09-01 price difference closed at 2075 yuan / ton, the spot of premium whole milk was 840 yuan / ton, and the spot of premium mixed rubber was 1240 yuan / ton
.
Domestic inventories are high, and it is difficult for the downstream operating rate of tire companies to increase significantly, making it difficult for rubber prices to stabilize and strengthen
.
The early cutting of domestic production areas may aggravate the contradiction of the current oversupply in China, the old rubber has not yet been digested, the new rubber is coming, and the road to storage is far away
.
During the domestic holiday, the Japanese rubber basically closed flat, rose slightly, but the trade war is suspected of heating up, Trump asked for an additional $100 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods, China also said that if the United States announces the plan, China will not hesitate to immediately carry out a vigorous counterattack, the market's expectation of the negative impact of the trade war on industrial products still exists, and the operation recommends rebound short selling, not chasing short
.