Shanghai rubber shock weakened, and the supply and demand structure is difficult to change

Night trading: RU1901 contract opening price 10895 yuan / ton, the highest price 10900 yuan / ton, the lowest price 10600 yuan / ton, the closing price 10605 yuan / ton; Down 290 yuan / ton, down 2.
66%.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10250 (0/0) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17-year full latex quotation 10300 (0/0) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 17-year whole milk tax quotation 10550 (-50) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10200 (0/-100) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 1030 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 485050 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 1040 tons, Yunnan decreased by 50 tons, Shandong decreased by 680 tons, Tianjin decreased by 60 tons, and Hainan increased by 800 tons
.

As of October 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 31%.

The inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued the sharp adjustment at the end of September
.
Among them, 52,100 tons of natural rubber, 56,300 tons of synthetic rubber and 36,000 tons of compound rubber, a total of 112,000 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons
from the previous data release date.
In view of the rapid change in the current statistical caliber and the large change in inventory data, which has a greater impact on the market, it is decided to suspend the update of inventory data from this period and release it after it is stable
.
The next update date is initially scheduled for December, and the specific time is subject to release
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract broke down on Tuesday and continued to be weak
overnight.
From the 60-minute candlestick chart, the K-line is located below the moving average system, and the technical indicator MACD green bar is enlarged; On the daily chart, the K-line fell back below the 5 and 10-day moving averages, and the technical indicator MACD red column turned green
.
The volume and position increased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 65295 (+938), short orders 88497 (-858), net short 23202 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

As of the close of the night session, the mixed spot of premium water was 505-655 yuan / ton
.
Exchange inventories remained at around 480,000 tons, and bonded zone inventories continued to decline
.
Poor terminal demand has formed an industry consensus, only 4 of the 9 listed tire companies have achieved positive growth in operating income, and the pressure on rubber supply in the fourth quarter has not decreased, and the fundamentals have not changed much
.
The cold winter of the auto market industry has come, and if there is no policy hand to support it, it is difficult for downstream demand to improve
.
Thailand said it would reduce the total area under cultivation and increase domestic consumption
.
Near the end of the year, index rubber has arrived one after another, the supply has increased, and the supply and demand structure is difficult to change
.

Overnight, crude oil and methanol fell to the limit, and many varieties of commodity markets fell, and it is expected that Shanghai rubber will still be dominated by volatility and weakening today
.