Shanghai rubber shock finishing downstream demand is difficult to improve

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract opened at 11310 yuan / ton, the highest price was 11350 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 11265 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 11340 yuan / ton; Up 30 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
27%.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10300/10450 (+100/+100) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17-year full latex quotation 10300 (+100) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 17-year whole milk tax inclusive quotation 10600 (+100) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10350 (+50) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 1890 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 495810 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 310 tons, Yunnan decreased by 830 tons, Shandong decreased by 410 tons, Tianjin decreased by 90 tons, and Hainan decreased by 250 tons
.

As of October 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 31%.

The inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued the sharp adjustment at the end of September
.
Among them, 52,100 tons of natural rubber, 56,300 tons of synthetic rubber and 36,000 tons of compound rubber, a total of 112,000 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons
from the previous data release date.
In view of the rapid change in the current statistical caliber and the large change in inventory data, which has a greater impact on the market, it is decided to suspend the update of inventory data from this period and release it after it is stable
.
The next update date is initially scheduled for December, and the specific time is subject to release
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract was volatile on Wednesday and continued overnight
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line returned to the short-term moving average above, the short-term moving average went well, and the technical indicator MACD red column continued; On the daily chart, the K-line returns above the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar narrows
.
The trading volume increased, the position volume decreased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 68104 (-4356), short orders 91091 (-6129), net short 22987 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
From December 1, Michelin will increase the price of commercial tires in the US market by as much as 8%.

In addition, from January 1, 2019, Michelin will increase the price of passenger tires, light truck tires and motorcycle tires in the United States and Canada to 5%, covering Michelin, Beloch and Uniroyal
.

2.
According to the financial report of Ditan Tire, in the third quarter, Ditan Tire's sales were 385 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.
7%.

Sales from January to September were USD 1.
24 billion, up 13.
4%
y/y.
Sales have increased
year-on-year in the last seven quarters.
In the third quarter, sales of agricultural tires and passenger tires declined, while sales of construction tires increased
.
However, in the first nine months, sales of all tire varieties increased, and the overall number of tires sold increased by 5.
9%
year-on-year.
Gross profit for the third quarter was $43.
7 million, up from $40.
1 million in the year-ago quarter.

Gross profit for the month ended September was $161.
6 million, also better than the $124.
4 million in the
year-ago quarter.
The report also shows that in North America, sales of large and medium-sized agricultural machinery have increased slightly over the past year, while sales of small agricultural machinery have maintained a strong upward trend
.
Recent surveys show that most dealers expect to maintain their momentum in 2019 with optimism
.

As of the close of the night trading at 11-01, the spread closed at 1140 yuan / ton, and the mixed spot of premium water on the plate was 990-1190 yuan / ton
.
Exchange inventories have fallen, bonded zone inventories have continued to fall, and the outbound situation in and outside the zone has improved, and there are factors
of warehouse transfer.
Poor terminal demand has formed an industry consensus, only 4 of the 9 listed tire companies have achieved positive growth in operating income, and the pressure on rubber supply in the fourth quarter has not decreased, and the fundamentals have not changed much
.
Market rumors of purchase tax incentives are expected to be introduced, but there is no final confirmation
yet.
The cold winter of the auto market industry has come, and if there is no policy hand to support it, it is difficult for downstream demand to improve
.
Thailand said it would reduce the total area under cultivation and increase domestic consumption
.
In terms of weather, most of southern Thailand will experience heavy rainfall
in the next 7-10 days.
Yesterday's Shanghai rubber stabilization is mainly based on shock sorting, spot overall than futures anti-fall volatility is narrower, the current price is at a historical low, the marginal downward trend slowed down, it is expected that today's Shanghai rubber will still be dominated by shock
finishing.