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Last week, Shanghai rubber rebounded strongly, especially on Friday, mainly as a result of a combination of
factors.
First of all, the seasonal supply reduction factor of tianjiao itself makes the rubber price supportive
.
This was followed by the decision of the governments of Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia to implement a mechanism to restrict rubber exports, cutting rubber exports
by 615,000 tons from March 1 to August 31.
Once implemented, this measure will limit domestic imports, thereby boosting domestic rubber prices
.
Finally, the atmosphere of the entire commodity market is warm, which makes Tianjiao a long-suppressed performance
in the low price position.
Sales of heavy-duty trucks in February rose 16% year-on-year, the first positive growth
in nearly 18 months.
The news ignited the enthusiasm of the market to go long, and Shanghai rubber directly rose and closed
.
Total domestic exchange inventories 279955 tonnes (+3675) as of the end of last week, and inventories continued to increase and hit the highest level in recent years; Futures warehouse receipts volume of 229380 tons (+8660), following the old rubber clearance at the end of November last year, warehouse receipts returned to the uptrend, last week warehouse receipts continued to flow, and the increase increased, which also made the May contract more selling pressure, which is why the recent far-month rally is easier
.
The current pattern of contracts has changed to a pattern of far month premium, when September is higher than 410 yuan / ton in May, there will be risk-free arbitrage opportunities, so when the spread rises to this position, long orders also need to be cautious
.
As of February 29, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventories decreased from the middle of the month, with inventories falling by 271,400 tons, a decrease of 2%, and the free trade zone inventory fell for the first time, indicating an increase in short-term domestic consumption, and it will be seen whether the decline can be sustained
later.
The high level of overall inventory is still a factor
that suppresses the current price of tianjiao.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of March 4, the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises was 62.
79% (+4.
15%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 66.
83% (+2.
85%), and the operating rate continued to rise last week, which is the performance of short-term downstream consumption improvement, good rubber prices, from the seasonal factors of the past year, the later operating rate will maintain a continuous upward trend, and the trend can be maintained until April
.
Watch for whether the late-stage operating rate can sustain this upward momentum
.
From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand, due to seasonal factors, the supply of new rubber in March will be further reduced, but because the problem of high inventory continues, the pressure on the near-month contract is still relatively large
.
The improvement of heavy truck data in February also boosted market confidence, as far as the heavy truck data in March, there is still the possibility of improvement, mainly because the sales of heavy trucks in the same period last year hit a new low, and this year there are many domestic fiscal stimulus policies, which is conducive to the increase
in consumption of heavy trucks 。 And this period of the year is still the time of weather speculation, the drought in Thailand and the tsunami in Indonesia have become the possibility of speculation, so without seeing the downstream consumption continue to deteriorate, and even see a little light, there are some positive factors in March, so in March due to seasonal supply contraction, rubber prices still have support, it is recommended that investors treat with more volatile ideas, and there are many orders to continue to hold
.
