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Shanghai rubber rebounded slightly, but the overall operation was weak
.
Rubber faces a game of strong reality and weak expectations, but the forward price is determined by weak expectations, and in the absence of effective positive factors to repair pessimistic expectations, it is expected that the weak operation of rubber will continue: on the one hand, under the condition of good phenological conditions and the epidemic is controlled, the current high raw material prices or stimulate the gradual release of supply; On the other hand, the inflection point of domestic demand is determined, and the support of external demand is weakened; At the same time, there is still room for spreads to contract, and the global liquidity inflection point is approaching
.
In the short term, there are a small number of short orders to reduce positions, rubber has a technical rebound, but the medium-term spread still has room
to return.
On the supply side, from May to July every year, the global seasonal production increase period, the recent decrease in rainfall in the main production areas at home and abroad is conducive to the increase of raw materials, and raw material prices are still expected
to fall.
On the demand side, tire maintenance manufacturers gradually resumed work last week, and tire starts increased slightly month-on-month, but subject to slow shipments in the domestic market, coupled with serious obstruction of foreign trade shipments, it is expected that tire starts this week are expected
to decline.
At present, the finished product inventory of Shandong tire sample enterprises shows a continuous accumulation phenomenon, mainly due
to the recovery of some stopped and limited production manufacturers, and the poor transmission of downstream and internal and external sales.
Overall, supply growth expectations are relatively certain, while demand contraction is continuing, and no new drivers are visible
.
The high level of domestic inventories continued to deteriorate, but the pace of destocking slowed down
.
At present, the short positions of Shanghai rubber are relatively concentrated, and the short-term downside risk is still large, and the downward edge of the medium-term wide oscillation may move
down.
In addition to the sector effect of commodity linkage, it is more that the natural rubber industry itself lacks strong support
.
From the point of view of price action fit, rubber does not fully follow the commodity market, but is not surprisingly weaker
.
The rise of leading varieties has limited pulling effect on rubber, but rubber bears the brunt of the pullback, continuing the characteristics of
difficult to rise and fall in the past.
The rubber products processing industry is factory production, and the spread of epidemic infection can easily lead to the shutdown of production
.
In the case of the aggravation of the epidemic in rubber-producing countries such as Thailand and Malaysia, rubber futures have bottomed
out again.
The trend range of rubber futures was adjusted, and the overall direction remained unchanged
.
