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Last week, Shanghai rubber continued to be under upward pressure after rebounding, running up and down around the integer level of 10,000 points, and the rubber entered a laterally extended oscillating structure during the week
.
Downstream demand is still under pressure due to the decline in export orders, but the domestic automobile consumption stimulus policy is gradually rolled out, and the momentum of the decline in automobile production and sales has weakened, which has helped
to stabilize long-term rubber prices.
Rubber is still facing the pressure of high spot inventory, so it is currently treated with oscillation sorting, but if it falls again to form a second bottom, it can be bought lightly, and it is not suitable to chase up
if it rebounds higher.
Thai raw glue and cup glue continue to rise, in a low-value repair situation
.
At present, Thailand is in a low production period, which supports prices
.
The production of local rubber processing plants is not greatly affected, and the current raw material prices are low, and the production profit is relatively good
.
Raw material prices have been at a low value level in the same period of the past year, and the possibility of repair and return is high, which brings certain benefits to the futures market
.
In Hainan, due to climatic conditions, the condition of rubber trees this year is uneven, coupled with low prices, the overall rubber tapping has been delayed (I heard that some parts of southern Hainan have been preparing for cutting
this weekend).
At present, the purchase price of glue in Hainan production area refers to 10.
8 yuan / kg, and the 10 meridian glue made of mixed rubber garden gel is 8 yuan / kg
.
However, the Baisha area has not yet been cut due to poor tree conditions, and the normal release of new gum is expected to be at least after mid-to-late April
.
With the alleviation of drought in Yunnan production areas, they have also started cutting recently, but the amount of rubber produced is very small, and the output of new rubber for delivery products is low
.
The overall raw material volume is obtained after
mid-May.
At present, it has been delayed by about
15 days from normal cutting.
On the supply side, some areas of Yunnan and Hainan have been cut, but the supply release is limited, and the output release will be at least after mid-May
.
Domestic stocks continue to grow, and stocks in Qingdao have risen above a historical high of 800,000 tons, and high inventories have suppressed
the rebound of rubber prices.
On the demand side, although the operating load rate of domestic downstream tire enterprises has recovered to more than 60%, most factories have greater pressure on domestic sales and export, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high
.
The market is mainly based on arbitrage plate buying and replacement, and factories mostly have no stockpiling plans
.
In the short term, under the pressure of crude oil prices, the linkage pressure, the obstruction of downstream export orders and high inventories in trade links make it difficult for the rubber market to strengthen
independently.
The main 2009 contract of Shanghai rubber oscillates around 10,000 points, and if it falls again, you can buy the far month contract
lightly.
