Shanghai rubber range oscillation finishing The night session is good

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 157.
6 yen/kg, the highest price is 158 yen/kg, the lowest price is 154.
8 yen/kg, and the closing price is 155.
5 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3579 lots, and the position volume was 13167 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
14-year state-owned full latex 10450 (-150) in Shanghai; 14-year Yunnan state-owned whole milk 10450 (-100) in Shandong; The tax-free price of state-owned whole milk in Hengshui area for 14 years is 10,000 (0) yuan / ton, and the price of 15-year private whole milk without tax is 10,100 yuan / ton (0) yuan / ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation of 11000 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 2840 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the last period was reported at 313580 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 990 tons, Yunnan increased by 300 tons, Shandong increased by 760 tons, Tianjin decreased by 1180 tons, and Hainan increased by 1970 tons
.

The main contract of Shanghai rubber 1701 was range-bound and strengthened
overnight.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line returned to the top of the moving average system, supported by the 20-day moving average, the technical indicator MACD green column narrowed, and the moving average system went well; On the daily chart, the K line returned to near the 5-day moving average, supported by the moving average system, and the MACD red bar continued
.
Lower support at 12520
.
The volume and position volume fell
.
Overall, the technical side is strong
.

Positions of the main contract of Shanghai rubber (1701): the top 20 members have long positions of 63762 (-3960), short positions of 88778 (-1828), and net short positions of 25016
.

Comprehensive analysis, yesterday's Shanghai rubber range oscillation sorting, the night trading is good
.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2415 as of the night session, and is expected to still fluctuate
above 2000.
09 is likely to continue weakening
in mid-to-late August.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate
between 12500-13200 on the 01 contract.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a contract structure of near and weak and far strong, and it is unlikely that the price difference will be repaired significantly
.
You can consider selling short on the 1611 contract, the logic is that part of the warehouse receipt of 09 will be moved to the 11 contract, as the last contract of the 16-year-old rubber, the 9-11 spread is expected to be flat, and even 11 may discount 09
.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.