Shanghai rubber prices are close to the rubber tapping cost line, and the futures price has limited room for decline

On Wednesday, the main 1905 contract position of Shanghai rubber increased slightly, and the futures price closed higher
.
The price closed at 11,785 yuan / ton, up 0.
94% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 556 lots and 310902 lots
.

News: 1.
In 2018, Bridgestone's European original tire sales increased by 30%.

2.
New vehicle sales in the United States increased by 0.
6% to 17.
33 million units in 2018, and the outlook may be bleak
.

In terms of spot: the 17-year quotation of state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market was 11300 (+100) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 10950 (+100) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 12600 (+100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 17 years full latex 10550 (+50) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 43.
17 (+1.
07) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 45.
13 (0) THB/kg; Field glue 39.
5 (0) baht/kg; Cup gum 36.
5 (+1) baht/kg
.

Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 11700 (0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11700 (0) yuan / ton
.
On January 8, the market offer enthusiasm of Qingdao Free Trade Zone was acceptable, the enthusiasm of inquiry was acceptable, the transaction price of US dollar rubber rose steadily, and the transaction price of RMB rubber increased
slightly.

Although the domestic natural rubber production areas have entered the cutting period, the main production areas of Southeast Asian tianjiao are still in the peak season of rubber tapping, and this year's global tianjiao production will still maintain a growth momentum, and from the perspective of inventory, exchange inventory and inventory outside the bonded area have continued to increase, and the future supply pressure is still large
.

Downstream, the operating rate of tire factories has declined, and the pre-holiday stock is relatively light
.
However, at present, the price of Shanghai rubber is close to the domestic rubber tapping cost line, and the futures price has limited
room for decline.
The short-term Shanghai rubber 1905 contract is recommended to trade
in the 11600-11900 range.