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On Thursday, the Shanghai rubber RU2105 contract opened higher and lower, and the futures price closed slightly lower
.
The current price closed at 14125, -0.
77% from the previous trading day; Volume 313296 lots, position volume 155179 lots, +2224, basis -475; RU5-9 spread -255.
The NR2105 contract closed at 11305, -0.
83% from the previous session; The trading volume is 15028 lots, the position is 26123 lots, -1236; NR05-06 spread is -125
.
News: 1.
From January to February 2021, the import volume of natural rubber was 82,000 tons, up 02,500 tons from the previous month, an increase of 2.
95%; It increased by 24,000 tons, or 41.
44%.
2.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, the operating rate of semi-steel tire sample manufacturers last week was 72.
34%, up 0.
10% month-on-month and 8.
40% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 77.
35%, up 0.
52% month-on-month and 13.
31%
year-on-year.
3.
In the first two months of 2021, Vietnam's rubber exports increased by 89.
9%
year-on-year.
Market quotation: Shanghai market 19 years state-owned full latex reported 13650 (+0) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13350 (+50) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 20100 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1810 (-10) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 April cargo reported 1810 (-5) US dollars / ton
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 64 (+0) baht/kg; Cup glue 45.
3 (-0.
7) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 14400 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 13700 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 170920 tons, +0 tons; NR warehouse receipts 60,842 tons, - 202 tons
.
Main positions: RU2105 top 20 long positions 67123, + 581; short positions 96735, + 2808; long and short increased, net short increased
.
Summary: From the supply side, the current Southeast Asian sky rubber production is in the lowest production period
of the year.
The domestic Yunnan production area has entered the seasonal cutting period, but powdery mildew is more serious in some areas, and it is expected to delay the harvesting until early April.
The Hainan production area is expected to start cutting in early April, and the current high price may stimulate the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to tap rubber, but considering that the supply of raw materials in the early stage of cutting is small, and it will still face concentrated milk diversion, it is expected that warehouse receipts will be difficult to increase
significantly.
From a downstream point of view, due to the gradual recovery of environmental protection and production restriction manufacturers, the operating rate of domestic tire factories increased slightly last week, and the current factory export orders are sufficient, and the inventory of finished products is low
.
However, the rise in raw materials has led to an increase in the price of finished tires, while the terminal market has started relatively slowly, the price increase transmission is not smooth, and the inventory of dealers is rising
.
On the market, the RU2105 contract opens high and low, focusing on support around 13900 in the short term, it is recommended to trade in the 13900-14400 range, and the NR2105 contract is recommended to trade
in the 11000-11400 range.