Shanghai rubber narrow range oscillation temporarily dominated by band operation

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1805 contract opening price 13730 yuan / ton, the highest price 13845 yuan / ton, the lowest price 13620 yuan / ton, the closing price 13820 yuan / ton; Up 90 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
66%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1806 contract is 203.
8 yen/kg, the highest price is 206.
4 yen/kg, the lowest price is 203.
2 yen/kg, and the closing price is 204.
6 yen/kg; The trading volume is 4000 lots, and the position volume is 14259 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation downward: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16-year full latex quotation 12100 yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16-year full latex quotation of 12200 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 11700 yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17-year full latex quotation 12400 yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 20 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the last period was reported at 362750 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 100 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong decreased by 120 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

The Shanghai rubber 1805 contract fluctuated in a narrow range on Friday, and the overnight volatility strengthened
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line returned to above the 20-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green column turned red; On the daily chart, the K line oscillates near the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar is enlarged
.
The trading volume and position volume decreased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 107137 (-316), short orders 152748 (+330), net short 45611 lots
.

Related Information:

1.
Data show that in 20107, the sales of tires in the United States were 316 million, down 0.
2%
year-on-year.
Among them, passenger tires and light truck tires decreased slightly by 0.
7% and 0.
3% respectively, while truck tires increased by 5.
1%
year-on-year.
In 2017, sales of replacement tires for passenger cars in the U.
S.
reached 208.
3 million units, a slight increase of 0.
3%
y/y.
Sales of light truck tires decreased by 2%.

Truck tire sales increased by 4.
3%.

Sales of original tires for passenger tires decreased by 4.
7%, while those of light trucks and trucks increased by 10.
2% and 7.
5
% respectively.
In addition, U.
S.
passenger tire imports from China in 2017 decreased by 35.
6% year-on-year, and truck tire imports from China decreased by 20.
5%
year-on-year.

2.
In December, China's imports of natural rubber increased to the maximum of 344,000 tons in 2017, an increase of 40.
1% month-on-month, basically unchanged from the same period last year, and a slight decrease of 0.
2%
year-on-year.
From the perspective of customs imports, general trade and the amount of tianjiao flowing into the bonded zone increased year-on-year
.
Among them, general trade remained strong, continuing to increase for eight consecutive years year-on-year, up 28.
5% year-on-year this month and 43.
4%
month-on-month.
The inflow of Tianjiao into the bonded zone increased by 5.
7% year-on-year and 0.
3%
month-on-month.
The amount of tianjiao flowing into warehouses in the bonded zone this month decreased by 73.
5% year-on-year and slightly increased by 8.
7% month-on-month, a significant decrease
from the previous month's increase (98.
5%).
Free Zone inventories continue to increase and supply pressures continue
.

The number of tianjiao directly imported by tire companies this month fell by 27.
0% year-on-year and 7.
1%
month-on-month.

In 2017, China's total imports of tianjiao were 2.
793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.
7%.

General trade, bonded zone warehousing and bonded warehouses increased by 32.
2%, 26.
8% and 7.
7% respectively year-on-year, while import processing decreased by 10.
3%
year-on-year.

March and December China's tire exports increased to 45.
898 million tires year-on-month, becoming the largest monthly export volume in 2017, and increased year-on-month, of which 13.
1% year-on-year and 14.
3%
month-on-month.

From the perspective of major destination countries, the number of tires exported to most countries increased
year-on-year.
Among them, 5.
9 million pieces were exported to the United States, achieving another double increase since October, an increase of 2.
8% year-on-year and 17.
4%
month-on-month.
Exports to Europe's major markets of the United Kingdom and Germany also completed double growth, with the UK reaching a year-on-year increase of 23.
2% and 23.
4% month-on-month, and Germany also increasing by 5.
6% year-on-year and 44.
9%
month-on-month.
In addition, exports to Mexico, Russia, Brazil and Nigeria also increased by 19.
2%, 13.
3%, 41.
8% and 28.
3%
year-on-year, respectively.
Only exports to Saudi Arabia decreased by 26.
3%
year-on-year.

In 2017, China exported a total of 484 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 3.
0%.

On the whole, the top exporters are mainly exporters, and exports are decreasing
.
Among them, exports to the United States decreased by 9.
8% year-on-year, exports to the United Kingdom and Mexico decreased by 3.
8% and 2.
7% year-on-year, and exports to Brazil and Nigeria increased by 50.
7% and 38.
8%.

It is heard that Southeast Asia may stop cutting early this year
.
The contradiction between domestic supply and demand still exists, the inventory of exchanges and bonded areas has increased significantly, and the downstream replenishment is still expected, but the expected quantity is not as good as in previous years
.
The operating rate of tire companies maintained a historical high in the same period under higher costs, Southeast Asian rubber producing countries led by Thailand frequently issued policy dividends, Thai raw material prices fell slightly, and heard that the local government purchased raw materials to stabilize rubber prices
.
With the US dollar weakening and commodities strengthening overall, we recommend investors to go long on dips around 13500, choose entry points with a large margin of safety, and temporarily focus on band operations
.