Shanghai rubber is under pressure at a high level, and the supply pressure is still obvious

News: 1.
In the first four months, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased by 24.
5% year-on-year, and exports to China increased by 37.
4%.

2.
Passenger car sales in Italy in April increased by 1.
5% y/y to 174,000 units
.
3.
In the first four months, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 2.
3%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (cloud elephant) in the Shanghai market is 11800 (-50) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 12200 (-100) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco slices 13500 (-100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 11800 (+100) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan State-owned Rubber Processing Plant remained stable at 13,000 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 51.
29 (+0.
34) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 53.
7 (+0.
19) baht/kg; field glue 50.
8 (+0.
1) baht/kg; Cup glue 42 (+0) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 11300 (+200) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11500 (+300) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 422940 tons, +770 tons
.
Main positions: Top 20 long positions 98587, -8574; short positions 134568, -2682
.
Long and short are reduced at the same time, and headroom is increased
.

Summary: At present, the domestic production areas have entered the rubber tapping period, and the Yunnan production area has dry weather and partially stopped cutting, and some areas have begun to rain, and continue to pay attention to weather changes in the later stage
.
In terms of imports, Vietnam's exports to China increased sharply year-on-year in April, but with the strengthening of customs supervision over the import of mixed rubber, domestic imports may be slightly reduced
in the future.
From the perspective of inventory, exchange inventory and inventory outside the bonded zone have continued to increase, and supply pressure is still obvious
.
On the demand side, the recent operation of domestic tire factories has remained relatively good, but from the export data, the export decline in the first quarter of this year is obvious, and the demand side is not optimistic
.
Technically, the RU1909 contract is eyeing support around 11850, with short-term recommendations trading in the 11850-12300 range
.