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Shanghai rubber fell after the shock this week, with both positions and trading volume falling, and RU2201 hit a new low
since October last year.
Even if Qingdao's inventory continues to decline, it is difficult to offset the negative brought by the demand side, and rubber continues to fluctuate
at a low level.
The average price of RU 2201 this week was 13460 yuan / ton, down 209 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.
53%; The average price of NR's main force this week was 10905 yuan / ton, down 77 yuan / ton from last week's average price, down 0.
70%.
As of Thursday, RU2201 closed at 13340 yuan / ton, down 490 yuan / ton from last Thursday; NR main 2111 closed at 10,745 yuan / ton, down 355 yuan / ton
from last Thursday.
In terms of supply, according to the tradition of previous years, the supply and demand of "Golden Nine" natural rubber should be in the peak season
.
However, there has been a weak trend on the supply side and the demand side recently, and in Southeast Asia, 70-80% of Thailand has rain due to the monsoon; Affected by weak downstream demand and environmental protection production restrictions, the output of raw materials in China's main producing areas has been reduced, the output is small, the price is expensive, and the business of local rubber processing factories is difficult to do
.
Downstream, auto production and sales figures continue to decline, abroad: Daimler, the world's largest truck manufacturer, reportedly has been unable to deliver
a large number of trucks missing key components due to further tightening the supply of key chips in its truck business.
And since the summer, chip shortages have intensified again, already affecting truck production
in Germany and the United States.
China: In August, the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of the China Passenger Association reached 1.
451 million units, down 14.
8% year-on-year and 3.
4%
month-on-month due to the high base in the same period last year.
Weak demand has led to a decrease
in downstream willingness to purchase rubber.
At present, Qingdao's inventory continues to be at a low level, but due to the delay in the arrival of imported rubber in August, it is estimated that from the end of this month and next month, delayed cargo will arrive at the port one after another, and China's imported rubber volume will increase intensively, which will further affect the market price
of natural rubber.
In summary, high processing costs, weak downstream demand and the concentration of imported rubber in Hong Kong have led to a sharp decline in the natural rubber market, and it is expected that the probability of continuing the weak volatility trend
.
