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As the bearish factors of tightening liquidity have been digested, the fundamentals of the superimposed rubber market are still optimistic, and the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2105 contract showed a bottoming and rebound trend on Wednesday night, and the futures price fell to 14325 yuan / ton to stop falling and stabilize
.
On Friday, the rubber 2105 contract fell back down, showing an adjustment stage market, and it is expected to continue the sharp fluctuation trend
in the later stage.
On the demand side, it will weaken near the Spring Festival, but due to initiatives such as celebrating the New Year in place, the tire operating rate during the Spring Festival this year will remain at a high level in the same period, and the degree of rebound after the holiday will be weaker
than in previous years.
The specific drive of overall demand depends on the control of the epidemic, and at present, demand is still restricted by the epidemic, and growth is limited
.
On the supply side, the overall supply is still relatively abundant, but the structural market will continue, and the inventory of warehouse receipts in the last period is 167,040 tons, which is at a low level in nearly six years, down 29.
3%
from 2020.
Once there is fundamental cooperation (foreign supply side due to weather and other factors) or the foreign epidemic is gradually controlled, the structural market will accelerate again
.
At present, from the absolute price point of view, the price of tianjiao is still in a more reasonable range of oscillation, but the upward drive still needs to be further verified or driven, and the overall state of high volatility is maintained
.
On the whole, the expectation and logic of structural market and supply and demand mismatch still exist, and the degree still needs to be further dependent on weather conditions and the evolution of the epidemic
.
