Shanghai rubber intraday volatility strengthened, upside is limited

In the night market, the opening price of Shanghai rubber RU1809 contract was 11520 yuan / ton, the highest price was 11590 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 11495 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 11550 yuan / ton; Up 30 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
26%.

The opening price of the Nichijiao 1809 contract is 192.
2 yen/kg, the highest price is 192.
2 yen/kg, the lowest price is 187.
9 yen/kg, and the closing price is 191.
7 yen/kg; The trading volume was 2437 lots, and the position volume was 8187 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10600/10700 (+100/+200) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16-year full latex quotation of 10600 (+100) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year full milk quotation 10200/10300 (+100/+100) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10800 yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 60 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 427650 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 50 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong decreased by 210 tons, Tianjin increased by 200 tons, and Hainan Ping
.

The Shanghai rubber 1809 contract was volatile and strong on Wednesday, and the night session remained strong and volatile
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line rose back to the upper edge of the moving average system, and the technical indicator MACD green column turned red; On the daily chart, the K-line rose above the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continued
.
The trading volume has been greatly reduced, the position volume has decreased, and the technical picture is strong
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 111971 (-1705), short 160473 (-2034), net short 48502 lots
.

As of May 2, 2018, rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, decreasing by about 10.
5% from mid-April, and the decline was magnified
again.
Specifically, the inventory of natural rubber, synthetic rubber and mixed rubber has decreased
to varying degrees.

First Commercial Vehicle Network recently learned that in April 2018, China's heavy-duty truck market sold a total of about 121,000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 16%
over the 104,400 units in the same period last year.
From January to April this year, the heavy-duty truck market sold 444,400 units, up 14%
from 388,400 units in the same period last year.

The monthly sales volume of 121,000 units broke the all-time high of 115,900 units in April 2010 in April, and also reflects the strong demand for construction vehicles in the traditional peak season after the spring season in March and April
.
But among them, hidden dangers still exist
.
At present, the industry situation should not be too optimistic, the inventory of tractors and engineering vehicles in the whole industry is high, and many manufacturers and dealers are under increasing financial pressure, which will greatly affect the development trend
of the heavy-duty truck market in June and the second half of the year.

We believe that as of the close of the night trading 05-09 price difference closed at 370 yuan / ton, 09-01 price difference closed at 1995 yuan / ton, plate premium whole milk spot 950 yuan / ton, premium mixed glue spot 1000 yuan / ton
.
The inventory of the bonded zone declined, and the heavy truck exceeded 120,000 in April, setting a record again, and the market still maintained relative restraint in the face of market factors, and the shock upward trend was mainly
to reduce positions.
In the context of the overall rebound of energy and black varieties, Shanghai rubber shock upward, but pessimistic expectations are still there, upside space is limited, it is expected to be a strong shock around the 11500 hub today, it is recommended that investors shock ideas, short-term operation
.