Shanghai rubber intraday shock finishing night trading weakened

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract opening price 12065 yuan / ton, the highest price 12065 yuan / ton, the lowest price 11950 yuan / ton, the closing price 12005 yuan / ton; Down 60 yuan / ton, down 0.
5%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1902 contract is 166 yen/kg, the highest price is 167.
3 yen/kg, the lowest price is 165.
2 yen/kg, and the closing price is 165.
9 yen/kg; The trading volume was 2559 lots, and the position volume was 12718 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10600 (-) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 10800 (0/0) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10400/10500 (0/0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 140 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 508850 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 220 tons, Yunnan decreased by 10 tons, Shandong increased by 360 tons, Tianjin decreased by 70 tons, and Hainan decreased by 200 tons
.

As of August 31, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 6.
5%
from the 16th of this month.
Among them, the increase of natural rubber is more, and styrene-butadiene rubber has also increased
slightly.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract was volatile on Monday, weakening overnight
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line is near the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continues; On the daily chart, the K-line is at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range, and the technical indicator MACD green bar continues
.
Trading volume and position volume declined, and the technical picture was volatile
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 75381 (-1760), short 108608 (-170), net short 33227 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
According to foreign media news, natural rubber supplier Hesheng is considering launching a digital trading platform
for tianjiao in response to weak commodity prices.

According to Robert Meyer, CEO and co-founder of Halcyon, the platform is costing millions and is scheduled to launch
in 2019.
It aims to be an "Amazon-style" replica of the Tianjiao market, which is different from traditional platforms in that it can find prices
more efficiently.

Our goal is to shift from commodity pricing to industrial pricing and promote transparent transactions in the supply chain, Meyer added
.
In the first half of 2018, Halcyon's tianjiao business volume reached 680,000 tons, surpassing Shidong's 675,000 tons, and it is currently the world's largest supplier
of natural rubber.

2According to the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 609,000 tons in August 2018, an increase of 6.
7% month-on-month and 8.
8%
over the same period last year.
From January to August, China imported a total of 4.
514 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.
5%
over the same period in 2017.

As of the close of the night trading 09-01 price spread closed at 1655 yuan / ton, the plate premium mixed spot 1505-1605 yuan / ton
.
Exchange inventories remained at 500,000 tons, and high inventories were still a constraint
to the rise in Shanghai rubber prices.
The operating rate of domestic tire companies has fallen, the preferential policy withdrawal from the third and fourth lines of consumption is insufficient, and the industry is pessimistic
about the downstream car market.
Approaching the double festival, many companies may have an early holiday
.
August heavy truck data is still not ideal, confirming that the July inflection point is true, the demand in the second half of the year is worrying, the trade war has become a protracted war, the pace of destocking in the domestic market is slow, the spot market is stable, 200 billion boots landed, the market or a small finishing, still struggling
at the integer threshold.
The 9-11 contract was almost flat for a while, and the 9-1 positive set of positions was moved to November, and delivery pressure is expected to be heavier
in November this year.
Thailand's phenological conditions are good, and it is expected that the market pressure in the fourth quarter of the high yield period will be greater, Vietnam, Indonesia may reduce production this year, Laos, Cambodia may increase production, and this year's alternative planting imports may continue to increase
.
It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai rubber may be dominated by weak volatility today
.