Shanghai rubber increased its position and fell It is recommended that short orders continue to hold

Spot price: Shanghai market 15 years Yunxiang state-owned whole milk quotation of 16600 yuan / ton (-700).

Qingdao area Thailand RMB mixed rubber 16800 yuan / ton (-400), Vietnam 3L mixed rubber quotation 16800 yuan / ton (-700), Thailand 3# tobacco flakes 17900 yuan / ton (-700).

Free Trade Zone, RSS3 Honmangli Tobacco Tablets 2400 USD/t (-75); Thai standard spot 2000-2050 US dollars / ton (-95).

Cargo 2030-2060 (-95).

Externally, RSS3# is trading at $2470-2480/ton (-55), and STR20# is trading at $2100-2180/ton (-75).

The purchase price of raw materials in Thailand fell steadily, with raw film 76.
20, down 1.
10; cigarette film 78.
25, down 2.
76; glue 77.
50, flat; cup glue no quotation (baht/kg).

Stocks: As of the end of February 2017, the inventory of rubber (17625, -95.
00, -0.
54%) in Qingdao Free Trade Zone rose to 166,200 tons, an increase of 09,600 tons, or 6.
13%,
from 156,600 tons in mid-February.
Among them, the inventory of tianjiao increased by 07,200 tons to 123,400 tons, an increase of 6.
19%, while synthetic rubber increased by 02,400 tons to 38,400 tons, an increase of 6.
67%.

Automobile production and sales and inventory index: The heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell 88,000 vehicles in February this year, up 6% month-on-month, up 152% from the same period last year, and up 53,000
units net.
A large part of February's production and sales are still market orders
that could not be completed in November and December last year.
But the difference is that in the new orders, there are already "joining"
the demand for engineering new cars.
Since the beginning of the year, excavators have also performed well, with sales in the past four months reaching a high speed of 54% in the off-season on the basis of a 70% year-on-year increase in sales in the past four months
.
According to the survey of China's auto dealer inventory warning index released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index in February was 66.
6%, up 5.
1 percentage points from January and the highest since
March 2015.

The weak demand side has become very prominent, and the pressure of rubber inventory in the trade link has brought greater selling pressure
to the market.
From the fourth quarter of last year, the short-cycle replenishment of inventory has changed to the destocking that began in February, and the increase in supply after the flood in Thailand exceeded expectations, which also accelerated the process of destocking in the trade link, and they have shipped to withdraw funds to reduce inventory pressure, but the new demand is small, and the downstream raw material inventory has been prepared when it was previously expected to rise, resulting in a low willingness to purchase even if the price falls, and the market price is loose and falling
.
Secondly, the overall decline of the synthetic rubber industry chain also has a certain impact
.
The transitivity of the butadiene-butylbenzene cis-butadiene industrial chain declined, which put certain pressure
on tianjiao.

When the world is in the tapping gap, the overall supply situation is not pessimistic
.
It is understood that although March to May is the traditional low production period of the main producing countries, the overall output loss is not large
due to the stockpiling of more processed raw materials.
In addition, although the recent market has continued to fall, the industry is generally optimistic that the price of this year is higher than last year, so the expectation of rubber tapping enthusiasm after the cutting will increase due to price support, so the supply of the whole year remains stable
.

Since recently, domestic rubber stocks have continued to increase, and the overall supply of market supplies is sufficient
.
Imports fell month-on-month in January, but the highest
in three years year-on-year.
Rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone rose to 166,200 tons in early March, up 6.
13% from mid-February, and stocks are still in the process of
accumulating.
These imported goods are converted to some extent into domestic trader inventory
.
At the end of last week, total stocks continued to increase by 839 tonnes to 319721 tonnes
.

On the demand side, production at downstream plants has recently recovered, and the overall operating rate of tire companies has recovered to around 70
%.
Some enterprises have long-term contracts, or temporarily digest inventory and purchase small amounts from the market on demand; Some enterprises have experienced a large decline in raw materials after the year, and the procurement progress has slowed down
significantly.
Recently, Shanghai rubber increased its position and fell, crude oil fell 5.
53%, it is recommended to continue to hold short orders in the early stage, Shanghai rubber is expected to fall to 17200
.