Shanghai rubber increased its position and contracted its futures price and closed slightly lower

News: 1.
In 2018, China imported 7.
008 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, down 2%
year-on-year.
2.
In 2018, South Korea's synthetic rubber exports increased by 2.
9% year-on-year, and exports to China decreased slightly by 0.
2%.

3.
Malaysia's natural rubber production in November fell by 11.
2%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 11100 (-50) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 10800 (0) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco flakes 12550 (-50) yuan/ton; Yunnan 17 years full latex 10550 (0) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 43.
09 (0) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 45.
77 (0) baht/kg; Field glue 39.
5 (0) baht/kg; Cup glue 35.
5 (0) baht/kg
.

Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 11900 (0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 12000 (0) yuan / ton
.
In the last trading day, the enthusiasm of the Qingdao Free Trade Zone market was slightly lowered, the enthusiasm of inquiry was lowered, the overall transaction situation was not active, the transaction price of US dollar rubber rose, and the transaction price of RMB rubber rose
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 410190 tons, +90; as of the end of last week, exchange inventory: 436566 tons, +4261 tons, stocks are still at a high level
.

The main positions of Shanghai rubber: the top 20 long positions 84182, +278, short positions 121225, +1180
.
The bears still have the upper hand
.

Although the domestic natural rubber production area has entered the cutting period, the Thai production area is still in the rubber tapping season, and the global production of sky rubber will maintain the growth momentum
this year.
Earlier, Thailand's Agriculture Minister Grisada, said that to address the oversupply, the country will cut down old trees, aiming to cut the current output of 4.
5 million tons to 3 million tons and reduce the planting area from 4.
2 million hectares to 2.
4 million hectares
.
Considering that the target number is too large and Thailand is dominated by privately owned rubber plantations, the difficulty of implementing the policy, and the impact of reducing production on market share, the actual implementation is doubtful
.

From the perspective of inventory, the exchange inventory and the inventory outside the bonded zone continued to increase, the operating rate of downstream tire factories remained stable, and there was a demand
for stocking before the holiday.
However, the growth rate of demand cannot keep up with the growth rate of supply, and the pressure on supply and demand will still be large
in the future.
Technically, the RU1905 contract volume can be reduced, and the short-term focus is on the support around 11500 above, and it is operationally recommended to trade
intraday trading in the 11500-11800 range.