Shanghai rubber futures weak operation La Niña impact once again increased

Weather in production areas: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was 12.
5 in November 2021, an increase of 5.
8 month-on-month, and the impact of La Niña increased
again.
According to China's National Climate Center, La Niña status is expected to continue in the next three months and may peak in winter (December 2021 to January 2022), forming a weak to moderate La Niña event
.
The cold winter season can lead to an early stop in the production area
.

News: 1.
According to the preliminary data of the first commercial vehicle network, in November this year, China's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell about 50,000 vehicles of various types (invoice caliber), down 6.
5% month-on-month and 63% year-on-year, setting the lowest monthly sales level this year, slightly lower than the "bottom" sales (51,300 units) in August this year, and about 85,600 units
less than the same period last year.

2.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on December 7, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 661,000 tons in November 2021, down 7%
from 711,000 tons in the same period in 2020.

At present, the domestic Yunnan production area has been suspended one after another, and the eastern Hainan production area may be stopped in mid-to-late December; Rainfall has recently decreased significantly in southern Thailand and central Vietnam, and raw material output is expected to increase
.
Due to the surge in freight rates in Southeast Asia, there is an expectation that the December shipping schedule will continue to be delayed, and the accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao is expected to continue to be delayed
.
The significant increase in sea freight on European and American routes will also make China's tire export pressure prominent
.
Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories fell slightly month-on-month, because the order situation was not optimistic, the pressure on finished product inventory increased, the foreign trade orders of tire factories in December were expected to shrink, and the replacement of domestic terminals was gradually coming to an end, coupled with the obvious increase in factory raw material inventory, tire factories may slow down the procurement process of tianjiao
.
On the market, the RU2205 contract increased its position and closed lower, focusing on support around 14350 in the short term
.