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Market situation: On Friday, Shanghai rubber fluctuated at a high level, RU1909 reduced its position and contracted, and the futures price closed higher
.
The day closed at 12205, +1.
12% from the previous trading day; 415196 volume; Position 419026, -5598, basis -405, +45, Ru9-January spread -980, -40
.
News: 1.
In the first four months, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased by 24.
5% year-on-year, and exports to China increased by 37.
4%.
2.
The United States plans to extend the EU auto tariff decision
.
3.
In the first four months, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 2.
3%
year-on-year.
Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market was 11800 (+0) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 12200 (+0) yuan/ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 13550 (+0) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 11700 (+100) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan State-owned Rubber Processing Plant remained stable at 12,500 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 50.
95 (+0.
35) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 53.
35 (+0.
1) THB/kg; field glue 50.
5 (+0.
3) baht/kg; Cup glue 41.
5 (+0.
5) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 11100 (0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11200 (0) yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 422190 tons, +490 tons
.
Main positions: Top 20 long positions 103897, -4687, short positions 140076, +864
.
Reduce more and increase the short, and increase the headroom
.
Summary: At present, the domestic production area has entered the rubber tapping period, and the dry weather in the Yunnan production area has partially stopped cutting, which may have an impact
on the later output.
In terms of imports, Vietnam's exports to China increased sharply year-on-year in April, but with the strengthening of customs supervision over the import of mixed rubber, domestic imports may be slightly reduced
in the future.
From the perspective of inventory, exchange inventory and inventory outside the bonded zone have continued to increase, and supply pressure is still obvious
.
On the demand side, the recent operation of domestic tire factories has remained relatively good, but from the export data, the export decline in the first quarter of this year is obvious, and the demand side is not optimistic
.
Technically, the RU1909 contract is recommended to operate more in the short term, focusing on the pressure
around 12500 above.
