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In the past two weeks, the main 1705 contract of Shanghai Rubber has shown a sharp downward trend after continuously increasing its position and breaking through the previous high, and there was a drop limit on Friday
.
For now, it remains in an ascending channel on the pattern, but Friday's long black candlestick poses technical pressure
in the short term.
The Spring Festival is approaching, and judging from the situation in previous years, market funds will be withdrawn
to a certain extent in the near future.
What impact will this have on the market trend around the Spring Festival? Let's look specifically at the changes in the capital of
Shanghai rubber.
As of the close of trading on January 23, the total position of all contracts of Shanghai Rubber was 324374 lots, down 54,574 lots or 14.
4% from the close on the 16th; The average trading volume in the last 5 trading days was 619840 lots, which was little changed from the previous 5-day average
.
It can be seen that with the rush of Shanghai rubber and the fall, the position volume has declined
rapidly.
At the same time, the stock of Shanghai rubber has also fallen
significantly.
As of the close of trading on January 23, the stock of all contracts of Shanghai Rubber was 7.
727 billion yuan, a decrease of about 2.
073 billion yuan from the recent peak of 9.
8 billion yuan closed on the 16th, and the capital outflow reached 21.
2%.
At present, the scale of Shanghai rubber stock funds has fallen back to the average level since the second half of 2016, and the author believes that this aspect is related to the overall contraction of funds before the Spring Festival; On the other hand, it also reflects that as the rally comes to an end, the attention to funds has decreased
.
The recent pullback in capital will slow down the upward momentum to some extent
.
From the perspective of the main seat positions, as of the close of January 23, the total number of positions in the top 20 long seats of the main 1705 contract of Shanghai Rubber was 68,754 lots, and the total number of positions of the top 20 short seats was 83,268 lots
.
Top 20 net short holdings have grown sharply in the latest week after reaching their lowest level since Q4 2016 in mid-January, reflecting the waning power of bulls, who are rebuilding their strength and gradually regaining the
market initiative.
From the above analysis, the price of Shanghai rubber has also withdrawn
significantly at the same time.
The author believes that although Shanghai rubber is still in an upward channel in form, it is difficult to break through the recent high and continue to rise due to
the lack of capital cooperation.
Combined with the increasing net short positions of the main seats, it is expected that the market around the Spring Festival may be
dominated by weak finishing.
From the above analysis, the price of Shanghai rubber has also withdrawn
significantly at the same time.
The author believes that although Shanghai rubber is still in an upward channel in form, it is difficult to break through the recent high and continue to rise due to
the lack of capital cooperation.
Combined with the increasing net short positions of the main seats, it is expected that the market around the Spring Festival may be
dominated by weak finishing.
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Disclaimer: Some of the public information collected by this website comes from the Internet, and the purpose of reprinting is to convey more information and for network sharing, which does not mean that this site agrees with its views and is responsible for its authenticity, nor does it constitute any other suggestions, and the content of the article is for reference
only.
If you find a work on the website that infringes your intellectual property rights, please contact us and we will promptly modify or delete
it.
only.
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it.
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Responsible editor: Wu Qinshu
Responsible editor: Wu Qinshu
Responsible editor: Wu QinshuPrevious:Shanghai rubber warehouse reduction and downstream demand shrank slightly
Next:Shanghai rubber increase in warehouse increment The overall demand shrank slightly
Previous:Shanghai rubber warehouse reduction and downstream demand shrank slightly
Shanghai rubber warehouse reduction and downstream demand shrank slightlyNext:Shanghai rubber increase in warehouse increment The overall demand shrank slightly
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