Shanghai rubber downward probe to rebound, short-term is expected to continue to rebound

News: 1.
China's synthetic rubber production in June increased by 12.
7%
year-on-year.
2.
European light vehicle sales in May fell again by 2.
5%
year-on-year.
3.
Vietnam's natural rubber exports in June increased by 58.
4%
month-on-month.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 10300 (-100) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 10800 (-100) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco flakes 12350 (-100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10600 (-50) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan State-owned Rubber Processing Plant remained stable at 9800 yuan / ton / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 46.
95 (-0.
15) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 48.
48 (-0.
15) baht/kg; Field glue 45.
1 (+0.
1) baht/kg; Cup glue 36.
7 (+0) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10000 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10400 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 405650 tons, -490 tons
.
Main positions: Top 20 long positions 84541, -1873; short positions 119264, -2040
.
Long and short are reduced together, and headroom is reduced
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
In terms of imports, the inspection policy of mixed rubber may be relaxed, which may promote the import
of mixed rubber.
From the perspective of inventory, the inventory outside the bonded zone has continued to decline recently, but with the increase of imported rubber in the later period, the inventory will still recover
.
On the demand side, domestic heavy-duty truck sales in June fell sharply, coupled with the recent domestic tire consumption gradually entered the off-season, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, and the demand side was not optimistic
.
However, the current price has fallen into the cost range, and the cost support may make the futures price fall limited
.
From a technical point of view, the RU1909 contract is downward and rebounding, the futures price breaks through the pressure of the 10640 position, and the short-term is expected to continue to rebound, and it is recommended to trade
in the 10600-10850 range.