Shanghai rubber continues to plummet trend, the price center of gravity continues to shift

The data shows that the top 20 members of the main rubber contract RU1709 traded a total of 447465 lots on Thursday, an increase of 179618 lots (+67.
06%) from the previous trading day; The top 20 members holding buy orders in this contract held a total of 76,454 buy orders, an increase of 1,387 lots (+1.
85%) over the previous trading day; The top 20 members of the contract held a total of 104279 sell orders, an increase of 2,521 lots (+2.
48%) over the previous trading day; The number of warehouse receipts in the previous period was 306,660 tons, an increase of 460 tons
over the previous trading day.

Shanghai rubber fell to the limit within the day, Qingdao bonded zone US dollar rubber market quotation fell sharply, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, sporadic merchants test the offer, buying is relatively active, the transaction still needs to be specifically negotiated, the free trade zone quotation fell by 60-75 US dollars / ton as a whole: Thailand RSS3 quotation 1850 US dollars / ton, Malaysia SMR20# quotation 1540 US dollars / ton, Indonesia SIR20# no quotation, Vietnam SVR3L quotation 1680 US dollars / ton, Thailand STR20# quotation 1540 US dollars / ton
。

The sharp decline in Shanghai rubber caused market sentiment panic, traders have lowered the spot RMB market price of 600-1000 yuan / ton, the actual transaction negotiation is the mainstay, the mainstream quotation in Shanghai: Thailand RSS3 quotation 14300 yuan / ton, Hainan full latex quotation 13300 yuan / ton, Vietnam SVR3L quotation 14000 yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of raw materials in Thailand fell, with raw film 71.
18, down 0.
10; cigarette film 72.
77, down 2.
34; glue 64.
00, flat; cup glue 49.
00, down 1.
00 (baht/kg).

At present, the pressure of the spot market of Tianjiao continues to accumulate, while the demand side is not significantly improving, and the short-term imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to solve
.
As of May 2, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone rose from 220,100 tons in mid-April to 249,800 tons, an increase of 13.
49%.

Some rubber warehouses in the bonded zone have been liquidated, and the inventory outside the zone has also maintained a continuous growth trend, and the overall spot supply is sufficient; At present, the domestic production area has been cut, the new rubber has begun to be listed, and the registered warehouse receipt in the last period has exceeded the 300,000-ton mark, which is close to the highest level in history; The demand for downstream tire terminal market is not optimistic, manufacturers and intermediate dealers have high tire inventory, and it will take time to digest; Domestic heavy-duty truck sales were overdrawn in advance, the growth rate was declining month by month, and the follow-up growth was weak
.
Therefore, before the current supply and demand fundamentals have not fundamentally changed, and even there is a possibility of continued deterioration, short-term Shanghai rubber will most likely break the 14000 mark, looking down to the 13000-13500 area, it is recommended that investors wait and see, wait patiently to stabilize and stop falling, and the early short orders can continue to be held
.