Shanghai rubber consolidated at a low level to maintain weakness

Spot price: Shanghai market 15 years Yunxiang state-owned whole milk quotation of 19100 yuan / ton (-0).

Qingdao area Thailand RMB mixed rubber 18500 yuan / ton (-0), Vietnam 3L mixed rubber quotation 18500 yuan / ton (-500), Thailand 3# tobacco tablets 20100 yuan / ton (-100).

Free Trade Zone, RSS3 Tobacco Tablets 2-3 months loading cargo without quotation; Thai Standard Spot 2270-2280 (-10).

Externally, RSS3# reported $2800/ton (+0), STR20# reported $2300/ton (+0).

The purchase price of raw materials in Thailand was mixed, with raw film 82.
72, down 0.
88; cigarette film 86.
31, down 0.
66; glue 82.
00, up 1.
00; cup glue 71.
00, down 1.
00
.
(THB/kg)

Price difference structure: the price difference between full latex and RMB composite rubber is about
300 yuan / ton.
The price difference between 1709 and 1705 is 130 yuan / ton
.

Rubber stocks: As of mid-January 2017, the inventory of rubber (20815, 100.
00, 0.
48%) in Qingdao Free Trade Zone exceeded 120,000 tons, an increase of nearly 16%.

Specifically, the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber has increased, but the increase in natural rubber inventory is large; The inventory of specific varieties such as tobacco flake gum and styrene-butadiene gum has also increased
to varying degrees.

Automobile production and sales: In December 2016, the domestic heavy-duty truck market sold approximately 76,000 vehicles of all types, up 56% from 49,000 units in the same period last year and down 17%
from November.
According to the latest data from the China Passenger Association, the sales volume of passenger cars in the narrow sense of the Chinese automobile market in December 2016 was 2,707,328 units, an increase of 18.
7%
year-on-year.
After experiencing hot sales in November, the domestic car market ushered in a beautiful sales tail
in December.

Tianjiao production: According to the latest ANRPC report, the production of tianjiao in the first 11 months increased by 0.
4% year-on-year to 10.
106 million tons
.
Among them, Thailand, Vietnam and India increased by 1.
3%, 4.
8% and 7.
4% respectively year-on-year; China and Malaysia maintained their decline
.

Tianjiao import and export: China imported 345,000 tons of natural rubber in December, an increase of 15.
4% year-on-year and 19.
6%
month-on-month.
So far, in 2016, China imported a total of 2.
501 million tons of natural rubber, down 8.
6%
year-on-year.

Tire operating rate: In January, the average operating rate of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 48.
83%, down 21.
87 percentage points
from the previous month.

Under the influence of the Spring Festival, tire manufacturers stopped production mostly from late January to early
February.
Most manufacturers' inventories have entered a new low level, and with the return of production entities after the holiday, tire manufacturers will gradually strengthen in February under the stimulation of the demand for replenishment of inventory
.

The main reason for the tightening of monetary policy or the correction of the price of funds withdrawal on Friday, after the heat of funds subsided, the market stage contradiction point was in the
actual supply reduction and downstream seasonal inventory replenishment expectations.
Thailand's 310,000 tons of rubber have been absorbed into the market, and the next round of dumping is scheduled for February 14, with 100,000 tons
of reserves.
We believe that the bearish marginal effect of subsequent dumping will diminish, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities
after the correction stabilizes.