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On Wednesday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper encountered obstacles to the upside, with the highest 59140 yuan / ton and the lowest 58570 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 58720 yuan / ton, up 0.
43% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME copper fluctuated down, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $7968 / ton, down 0.
34%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The IMF expects the global economy to grow by 5.
5% in 2021, 0.
3 percentage points
higher than its October forecast.
(2) At 3:00 a.
m.
Beijing time on Thursday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision
.
Markets expect the Fed to likely maintain its dovish policy stance, reiterating support for fiscal stimulus, acknowledging that inflation expectations have picked up but have not yet reached worrying levels
.
Spot analysis: On January 27, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 58680-58860 yuan / ton, with an average price of 58770 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the holder lowered the quotation, the downstream demand weakened, and a small amount of just needed to purchase
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 20,635 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 125 tons; On January 26, LME copper stocks were 79,275 tons, down 2,850 tons per day, down 11 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract are 72018 lots, a daily increase of 869 lots, short positions are 81241 lots, a daily increase of 935 lots, a net short position of 9223 lots, a daily increase of 66 lots, long and short are increased, and net short increases
.
The new U.
S.
pandemic relief plan may be postponed until March while the global pandemic continues to spread; However, dovish expectations for the Fed's interest rate decision and an increase in the IMF's economic outlook forecast led to a return to risk sentiment, and the dollar index fell
under pressure.
Domestic copper mine supply maintained a tight pattern, copper ore processing fees TC continued to be reduced, and copper smelting costs were high; However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has greatly increased the import volume, and the price difference between refined waste has widened, and the substitution role will gradually increase; At the end of the year, the downstream market inventory willingness continued to decline in recent days, but due to the expected gradual weakening of demand in the off-season, copper prices can weaken
upward momentum.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2103 contract maintained a range adjustment, focusing on the support at the 58200 position, and it is expected to be range-bound in the short term
.
